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Oilers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Final/OTTV NHLN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in overtime, Auston Matthews scoring at 0:54. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Oilers led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 0:54 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.8 to 1.4; shots on goal were EDM 20, TOR 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.2 goals below expected; Jack Campbell stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (1 G, 1 A), 2. Leon Draisaitl (1 G, 2 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM043100501320
TORTOR01011021011431

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    P. Engvall(3)
    A. Matthews (17), M. Marner (30)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    0-1
    4:14
  2. EDM
    D. Nurse(11)
    C. McDavid (40), L. Draisaitl (33)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    6:47
  3. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(19)
    C. McDavid (41), T. Barrie (27)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +21 pts
    2-1
    14:05
  4. EDM
    T. Barrie(5)
    L. Draisaitl (34)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    18:06

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(10)
    A. Galchenyuk (2), W. Nylander (13)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +13 pts
    3-2
    12:21
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(13)
    J. Holl (10), A. Galchenyuk (3)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +41 pts
    3-3
    16:38

Overtime

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(22)
    M. Rielly (22)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +49 pts
    3-4
    0:54

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·TOR 2 PIM

2nd

  • 9:55TORPierre Engvall · Hookingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 14:54EDMEthan Bear · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

3rd

  • 3:39EDMDevin Shore · Holdingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalEDM goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, OT 0:54 — TOR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.30J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.19A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.19W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.17J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.10A. Galchenyuk · Missed · xG 0.09J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.06P. Engvall · Goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.05J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04A. Galchenyuk · Missed · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.00J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 2.8 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsTOR
1.43 G
All situations
4 G2.8
1.33 G
Even strength
4 G1.8
0.00 G
Power play
0 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 68 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM24%76%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.39 – 2.75

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsTOR
20
Shots on goal
31
33%
Faceoffs
67%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
32
Hits
13
16
Blocked shots
12
6
Giveaways
18
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. NurseD101+160.41230—26:58
29L. DraisaitlC123020.130003324:42
97C. McDavidC022+110.102105723:05
22T. BarrieD112+320.23220—21:28
74E. BearD000-100.00112—19:14
13J. PuljujarviR000+130.15200—18:36
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC000-200.000101118:26
4K. RussellD000-210.01120—18:14
6A. LarssonD000-100.01220—17:59
56K. YamamotoR000-110.01110—15:50
15J. ArchibaldR000000.00910—15:49
84W. LagessonD000-100.00010—15:30
91G. HaasC000020.071005014:20
44Z. KassianR000000.05300—13:21
21D. KahunC000-110.14010012:15
16J. KhairaL000000.004002008:14
39A. ChiassonR000010.07100—07:26
14D. ShoreC000000.00102007:21
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41M. Smith(O)31274.8712.80-1.2060:48

Season series

TOR leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).