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Oilers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV ESPN+, SNW·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 11:46 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 58% to 85%. Expected goals were close — EDM 2.7, TOR 2.5; shots on goal were EDM 32, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Mikko Koskinen stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 1.0 goals below expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Frederik Andersen (30 saves, .938), 2. John Tavares (1 G), 3. Leon Draisaitl (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    F. Andersen30 saves, .938
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM011110111232
TORTOR0122928429

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(2)SHG
    K. Yamamoto (3)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +18 pts
    1-0
    5:12
  2. TOR
    A. Brooks(1)PPG
    J. Spezza (2), T. Brodie (3)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    5:55
  3. TOR
    J. Vesey(2)
    W. Nylander (4), A. Kerfoot (2)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +19 pts
    1-2
    11:16

3rd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(4)
    E. Bear (2), R. Nugent-Hopkins (3)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    0:50
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(4)PPG
    M. Marner (4), W. Nylander (5)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +28 pts
    2-3
    11:46
  3. TOR
    M. Marner(4)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.52win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    19:59

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

2nd

  • 1:45TORPierre Engvall · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min
  • 4:07EDMKyle Turris · Hookingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min
  • 14:14TORJason Spezza · Hookingdrawn by Adam Larsson2 min

3rd

  • 10:30EDMDevin Shore · Hookingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalEDM goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 3rd 11:46 — TOR 58% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.52J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.27P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.18Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.11W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.10Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09A. Brooks · Goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.07J. Vesey · Goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.06W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.05P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.05A. Barabanov · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.03W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.03J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.01P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.01T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.01T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.01T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 2.5 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsTOR
2.72 G
All situations
3 G2.5
1.81 G
Even strength
1 G1.3
0.70 G
Power play
2 G0.7
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM62%38%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.62 – 1.98

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsTOR
32
Shots on goal
29
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/2
Power play
2/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
34
Hits
26
17
Blocked shots
15
8
Giveaways
17
2
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22T. BarrieD000-120.03120—25:14
25D. NurseD000+220.04110—24:00
97C. McDavidC101070.670005323:28
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC011030.52100022:39
29L. DraisaitlC101020.362103121:52
74E. BearD011+200.00310—18:12
4K. RussellD000010.00340—18:08
56K. YamamotoR011010.07240—17:41
44Z. KassianR000+110.03100—16:47
6A. LarssonD000-110.04620—15:56
21D. KahunC000020.13100015:15
20S. KoekkoekD000-110.02020—13:54
8K. TurrisC000000.002025513:37
13J. PuljujarviR000040.25200—11:56
63T. EnnisR000020.11100—11:39
18J. NealL000-230.40100—10:37
15J. ArchibaldR000-100.00600—10:23
14D. ShoreC000-100.001024007:24
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
19M. Koskinen(L)28253.8932.02-0.9858:14

Season series

TOR leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).