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Maple Leafs at Oilers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Edmonton Oilers
3
FinalTV SNW, TSN4·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zack Kassian's goal at 11:12 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 18% to 52%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.3 to 3.7; shots on goal were TOR 27, EDM 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Mikko Koskinen stopped 23 of 27 (.852). Three stars: 1. Leon Draisaitl (2 G), 2. Jason Spezza (1 G, 1 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Spezza1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR21104212427
EDMEDM01118210329

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Spezza(1)
    T. Boyd (1)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:29
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(3)
    J. Tavares (4), J. Spezza (4)
    wristxG 0.41win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    18:22

2nd period

  1. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(5)PPG
    C. McDavid (8), D. Nurse (6)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    18:11

3rd period

  1. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(6)PPG
    C. McDavid (9), T. Barrie (3)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +22 pts
    2-2
    7:00
  2. TOR
    W. Simmonds(3)PPG
    M. Marner (8), M. Rielly (6)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +24 pts
    3-2
    7:56
  3. EDM
    Z. Kassian(1)
    K. Turris (1), A. Larsson (1)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +34 pts
    3-3
    11:12
  4. TOR
    A. Matthews(5)PPG
    T. Brodie (4), A. Kerfoot (3)
    snapxG 0.07win prob +32 pts
    4-3
    13:37

Penalties

TOR 14 PIM·EDM 8 PIM

1st

  • 12:56TORAlexander Kerfoot · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins2 min
  • 16:22EDMKyle Turris · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

2nd

  • 5:27TORJustin Holl · Interferencedrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min
  • 13:45TORJason Spezza · Trippingdrawn by Caleb Jones2 min
  • 17:01TORAlexander Kerfoot · Slashingdrawn by Adam Larsson2 min
  • 17:31TORZach Hyman · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

3rd

  • 1:41EDMAdam Larsson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 6:08TORAlexander Kerfoot · Interferencedrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 7:42EDMJosh Archibald · Hookingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 12:12EDMEthan Bear · Slashingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 17:08TORWilliam Nylander · Trippingdrawn by Ethan Bear2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalTOR goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Zack Kassian, 3rd 11:12 — EDM 18% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.31K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.29Z. Kassian · Goal · xG 0.24L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.22Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.22J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.21K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.21L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.18L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.18J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.18L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.17L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.17L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.17L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.15D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.15D. Kahun · On goal · xG 0.14L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.12J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.11J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.10J. Puljujarvi · Missed · xG 0.09K. Yamamoto · Missed · xG 0.09L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.07T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.05C. Jones · Missed · xG 0.05T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.05J. Neal · Missed · xG 0.04J. Neal · Missed · xG 0.04Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kahun · On goal · xG 0.03A. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02E. Bear · Missed · xG 0.02C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.01A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Koekkoek · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jones · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jones · Missed · xG 0.01S. Koekkoek · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jones · Missed · xG 0.01J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.01J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.00J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM3 G · 4.3 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsEDM
3.74 G
All situations
3 G4.3
2.32 G
Even strength
1 G2.8
1.42 G
Power play
2 G1.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR44%56%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.73 – 4.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsEDM
27
Shots on goal
29
47%
Faceoffs
53%
2/4
Power play
2/7
14
Penalty minutes
8
24
Hits
18
14
Blocked shots
10
20
Giveaways
23
8
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. HollD000-110.05612—24:50
16M. MarnerR011020.4911010023:48
8J. MuzzinD000000.07020—23:11
44M. RiellyD011020.29220—20:35
11Z. HymanL000+110.38002—20:23
34A. MatthewsC101040.281105420:11
78T. BrodieD011+100.01100—19:27
91J. TavaresC011+110.162105717:16
65I. MikheyevR000010.13420—16:12
15A. KerfootC011-130.220062716:09
22Z. BogosianD000+120.06300—15:57
88W. NylanderR101+151.03002—14:28
26J. VeseyL000-100.00010—12:56
24W. SimmondsR101-110.12100—11:13
23T. DermottD000+100.00220—10:56
19J. SpezzaC112+140.420126309:53
72T. BoydC011+100.03000006:13
94A. BarabanovL000+100.00100—05:18
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)29263.8974.25+1.2559:02

Season series

TOR leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).