Model-driven college football coverage from the Gridpex desks.
New Mexico is an 11.5-point home favorite over Central Michigan, and our projection wants 16.5. The five-point gap reads modest until the stadium comes out of…
Our projection makes Western Kentucky a 6.5-point favorite at Nevada on Sept. 5. Bovada and DraftKings both post 2.5, and the quoted range across the two books…
Ohio State is a 50.8-point favorite over Ball State — Bovada and DraftKings, quoted between 51 and 50.5 — and our cover table reports the favorite covering 0%…
Across 176 non-neutral games since 2013 in which a Power-4 host closed as a 12.7- to 19.7-point favorite over a visitor from the MAC, Conference USA, the Sun B…
Two books have this posted, Bovada and DraftKings, between 20 and 20.5, consensus 20.2. We project Houston by 24.5. The 4.3 points in between rest on no 2026 g…
Our projection has Cincinnati by 11.1 at Nippert Stadium; Bovada and DraftKings both sit on 7.5, a gap of 3.6 points. Converted into implied team scores, that…
Take FBS Week 1 games from 2013 through 2025 in which the road team closed favored by 10.7 to 17.7 points — the band Oklahoma State's -14.2 at Tulsa sits in —…
Bridgeforth Stadium opens on Sept. 5 with a rematch almost nobody on the field played in. James Madison won 12 games last fall, beat Liberty 31-13 in Lynchburg…
Washington State spent last fall building one of the better defenses in the country: 19th nationally, 15th against the pass, the reason a 7-6 team was so hard…
Toledo allowed 13.3 points a game last fall, finished first in the country against the pass and tenth against the run, and won eight games. Michigan State went…
North Texas averaged 45.1 points a game last season, the second-ranked offense in the country, and almost none of it is walking into Memorial Stadium. Thirty-e…
UAB opens at Memorial Stadium on Sept. 3, and the plainest thing separating these two is what they did last fall: Illinois went 9-4, UAB went 4-8, and that bod…
Rutgers and Massachusetts open at SHI Stadium with rosters that barely resemble the ones that finished last November. Rutgers went 5-7, scoring 28.7 a game and…
Akron and Wake Forest have never played. No series, no film, no grudge, just an opener in Winston-Salem that both sides need for different reasons. Wake Forest…
Georgia Tech opened last season in Boulder and left with a 27-20 win, and Haynes King carried it out of the building himself: 19 rushes, 156 yards, three touch…
Thirty miles of Interstate 35 separate these campuses, and across 24 seasons of results there is not one game between them. Texas State gets its first crack in…
UTEP rebuilt itself through the transfer portal this offseason, and it built from below. Fifteen of Scotty Walden's 21 portal additions came from outside FBS,…
Clemson travels to Death Valley facing an LSU program that leveraged massive transfer activity to retool its top-tier roster. LSU holds a 9.6-point overall rat…
Bryant-Denny will be loud on Sept. 5 for a reason that has little to do with the visitor: nobody has seen Keelon Russell start a college football game. Alabama…
UNLV and Memphis have never played each other — no bowl crossover, no forgotten September trip anywhere in the modern record. They finally meet in Week 1 at Al…
Florida State scored 33 points a game last season. Two afternoons wrote most of that: 77-3 over East Texas A&M and 66-10 over Kent State. Strip those two out a…
Hawai'i won the last meeting 23-20 in Honolulu, in last season's opener, and on Aug. 29 the trip reverses. The Rainbow Warriors come to Stanford Stadium off a…
Virginia won eleven games last fall behind a quarterback, a 1,000-yard back and a receiving corps that are all gone. NC State won eight and kept the one player…
San José State's first snap of 2026 comes at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, taken by a Hawai'i transfer, Luke Weaver, who has thrown 20 career passes again…
