Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction, Picks & Odds — Sep 4, 2026

Toledo allowed 13.3 points a game last fall, finished first in the country against the pass and tenth against the run, and won eight games. Michigan State went 4-8 and gave up almost 30 a night. That resume gap is the loudest thing about Friday night in East Lansing and the least useful, because neither of these teams is the team that produced it. Toledo returns four percent of its pass-defense production and nine percent of its run defense. Michigan State kept its quarterback and lost every receiver he threw to.

Jason Candle left for UConn and took 17 Rockets with him. New coach Mike Jacobs answered by importing 11 players from Mercer, the FCS program he came from, and six of them project to start; 11 of Toledo's 20 projected starters played FCS football last season. Michigan State, coming off a losing year, sent 46 players into the portal and brought 28 back the other way. One question decides Friday: can a defense assembled in March hold up against a Big Ten running game in September?

What separates these two is roster talent. Michigan State's roster grades out 38th nationally, Toledo's 75th, and that gap alone is worth better than three touchdowns before anyone lines up. Add four and a half points for a full Spartan Stadium and this would look like a runaway. It isn't one, because Toledo's 2025 body of work rates about ten points better and because Michigan State spent the offseason gutting and re-stocking every unit on the field. The two forces very nearly cancel.

◄ToledofavorsMichigan State►

Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeMichigan State +25

Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageToledo +11

Returning productionhow much of last year's production is back this seasonToledo +10

Transfer portalnet proven talent gained vs lost in transfers — it raises or lowers a roster's projected strengthToledo +7

Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isMichigan State +1

Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Michigan State are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).

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One quarterback is settled. The other has 92 career throws

Alessio Milivojevic took Michigan State's job when Aidan Chiles got hurt and never gave it back, throwing for 1,267 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions across nine appearances, about two-thirds of the Spartans' passing work. He was named the starter out of spring and held it through camp under the new staff; Chiles is at Northwestern now. Behind him is one of the country's most experienced backups, sixth-year UCF transfer Cam Fancher, who has 28 career starts at Marshall, FAU and UCF and threw for 1,528 yards at FAU in 2024.

Toledo has neither piece. Tucker Gleason threw for 2,515 yards and 21 touchdowns last season and is gone; so is backup Kalieb Osborne, who followed Candle to UConn. John Alan Richter spent two years as the understudy, throwing 92 passes for 650 yards and seven touchdowns, more than half of that work coming in a rout of FCS Morgan State. He is not a freshman thrown to the wolves, but he has never carried a game plan against a Big Ten defense. Behind him is Lenoir-Rhyne transfer Khamoni Robinson, a Division II arrival with no FBS snaps.

When Michigan State has the ball

The Spartans' ground game ranked 96th last season, and that number belongs to two backs who are gone: Makhi Frazier (116 carries, 520 yards, now at Ole Miss) and Elijah Tau-Tolliver (72-428). In their place is Cam Edwards, who carried 210 times for 1,240 yards and 15 touchdowns at UConn last fall and caught 19 passes on top of it. He took more carries by himself than Michigan State's top two backs took combined. Iowa transfer Jaziun Patterson and holdover Brandon Tullis give him a rotation, and they run behind a line rebuilt with three transfers: left tackle Ben Murawski from UConn, center Trent Fraley from North Dakota State and right guard Nick Sharpe from South Carolina.

They will be running at a top-ten run defense that exists only on paper. Toledo's front produced 89 tackles for loss last year, sixth nationally, and 36 sacks, ninth. K'Von Sherman, the linebacker who made it go with 85 tackles and 4.5 sacks, followed Candle to UConn, and fellow linebacker Chris D'Appolonia is gone as well. The new line is Andrew Zock from Mercer plus Ezra Odinjor and Zach Johnson from UAB, with Isaac Prince and Langston Long (27 tackles) behind them.

When Toledo has the ball— its offense vs Michigan State’s defense

Passing: Toledo O #53 vs Michigan State D #102Toledo · slight edge

Rushing: Toledo O #64 vs Michigan State D #94Toledo · slight edge

◄ Michigan State defense winsToledo offense wins ►

When Michigan State has the ball— its offense vs Toledo’s defense

Passing: Michigan State O #71 vs Toledo D #1Toledo · slight edge

Rushing: Michigan State O #96 vs Toledo D #10Toledo · slight edge

◄ Toledo defense winsMichigan State offense wins ►

Read it by possession: each side shows what happens when that team has the ball — its offense against the other team's defense, unit by unit (national rank in parentheses). Last season's grades, shrunk toward average by how much of each unit's production actually returns. Toledo returns 78% of last season's passing production and 26% of its rushing production. Michigan State returns 20% of last season's passing production and 18% of its rushing production. Toledo's projected line: 2 of 5 held over, 3 portal; Michigan State's projected line: 2 of 5 held over, 3 portal.

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That combination has a track record. Since 2015, 15 teams have paired a top-15 defense with a new head coach the following season. In the 16 games where those made-over defenses drew a power-conference opponent in the first two weeks, they won four, a 25 percent win rate, and gave up 28 points or more three times in four. The same top-15 defenses that kept their head coach won 87 of 152 comparable games.

Toledo ranked first nationally against the pass, and that unit is the emptiest of all. Safety Braden Awls and his five interceptions are at Iowa State; safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (73 tackles) and corners Jadarrius Perkins and Avery Smith, who broke up 18 passes between them, are gone too. The replacements are Kaleb Hutchinson, KJ Thomas and Donovan Watkins from Mercer and Cam Jones from Holy Cross, with safety Nicholas Thompson (20 tackles) the only projected starter back there who was in Toledo last September.

Milivojevic has his own hole to cover. Nick Marsh (59 catches, 662 yards, now at Indiana), Omari Kelly (47-626) and tight end Jack Velling (36-359) are all gone from a pass offense that ranked 71st with them. The projected starting receivers are Michigan transfer Fredrick Moore, Charles Taplin and Notre Dame transfer KK Smith, who have 23 career FBS catches and 297 yards among them. The most accomplished pass-catcher on the roster, Chrishon McCray, with 1,035 career receiving yards between Kent State and Michigan State, is listed behind them. Help is arriving in a class ranked 43rd with five blue-chippers, headlined by four-star receiver Samson Gash. Freshmen rarely start openers, but that room needs somebody.

When Toledo has the ball

This is the underdog's real edge. Toledo's passing game ranked 53rd last season; Michigan State's pass defense ranked 102nd and intercepted five passes all year, 113th nationally, while breaking up 31 and managing 22 sacks. The Rockets had to rebuild the pass-catchers too. Junior Vandeross and his 1,008 yards are gone, along with every other Toledo receiver who gained 150 yards last season. Richter's new targets are Adjatay Dabbs, who caught 45 balls for 856 yards and eight scores at Mercer, slot man Rico Bond (60-694-6 at Lindenwood), Anthony Simpson, who has three career catches, and Akron tight end Jacob Newell. Terrell Crosby Jr. (16 catches, 194 yards) is the only returning contributor, and the protection in front of them is two holdovers, Stephen Gales and Ibrahim Traore, plus three linemen who spent last fall at Rhode Island and Gardner-Webb.

The defense they attack is just as new. Michigan State lost safety Malik Spencer, defensive back Malcolm Bell, linebackers Aaron Alexander (88 tackles) and Wayne Matthews III (73), and lineman James Schott and his 3.5 sacks. Linebacker Jordan Hall is the one holdover with real production, 88 tackles, 2.5 sacks and an interception, alongside edge rushers Isaac Smith and Anelu Lafaele and defensive back Aveon Grose. The rest arrived in a suitcase: Kenny Soares Jr. from NC State, Caleb Wheatland from Auburn and Eli Coenen from Illinois up front, and a secondary of Tre Bell (Iowa State), Charles Brantley (Miami), Devin Vaught (Maine) and Michael Richard (Louisiana Tech) around lone holdover Nikai Martinez.

On the ground, Toledo has to replace 1,015-yard back DeaMonte Trayanum along with Kenji Christian and Willie Shaw III. CJ Miller, who ran for 953 yards and 14 touchdowns at Mercer, gets the job, with Penn State transfer Corey Smith behind him, and they are running at a Michigan State run defense that ranked 94th and returns about a fifth of its production. Miller and Dabbs spent last season in the same offense, which is more continuity than either side can claim almost anywhere else.

Toledo moved Mercer to Ohio

Thirty-eight players left Toledo and 17 went to UConn with Candle, including six receivers, the backup quarterback and four offensive linemen. Thirty-three arrived, 11 of them straight from Mercer: the lead back, the No. 1 receiver, an edge rusher, three defensive backs, plus the kicker, a punter and the long snapper. The snapping and kicking operation will be a first-year Mercer snapper working with his Mercer kicker in a Big Ten stadium, the kind of detail that decides a two-point game. Two personal subplots, too: Toledo defensive lineman Carlos Hazelwood is on Michigan State's roster now, and Spartans safety Armorion Smith is on Toledo's.

The range this game lives in

The realistic band runs from Toledo by 18 to Michigan State by 22, and the most common single scoreline is 24-24. This finishes inside one score about four times in ten and within a field goal in nearly one of five. Someone wins by 20 or more a little better than one time in five, and that tail belongs to Michigan State more often than Toledo. Expect roughly 49 combined points. What moves it between those poles is drive-by-drive control: the Spartans' cushion grows every time Edwards keeps the chains moving, and every possession Toledo shortens is one Michigan State never gets.

1%

-38

2%

-32

4%

-24

8%

-18

13%

-10

16%

-4

18%

+4

16%

+10

12%

+18

7%

+24

3%

+32

1%

+38

0%

+46

Toledo winsMichigan State wins

Market: Michigan State −10Projected: Michigan State by 2 (55%)

The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Michigan State, the more likely Michigan State wins.

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Keys to the number

Michigan State is favored by 10, and clearing that number takes a specific kind of night. The Spartans have to score on nearly every possession rather than trade drives, no sure thing for an offense that finished 64th in turning scoring chances into points last year and returns about a fifth of the production behind that grade. They have to be up multiple scores by halftime, the most achievable item on their list, because the risk is a comfortable win that stops being comfortable once the backups play. And they would need to win the turnover battle by two, which they manage in fewer than one game in five. What they are unlikely to do is win in chunks: Michigan State ranked 97th in big plays on offense, and a team that grinds out long drives tends to top out in the low 30s, which is a win rather than a cover.

Toledo's checklist is shorter and easier. Lean on the passing game against that 102nd-ranked secondary, milk the clock and hold Michigan State to fewer possessions. Do not gift a short field, the most likely item on either side's list. Steal a possession with a fourth-down conversion or a special-teams play, because a double-digit underdog cannot trade drives evenly and stay inside the number. Toledo does not need a low-scoring rock fight to stay close, and it probably will not get one. The honest read is that the Rockets' keep-it-close criteria are considerably easier to meet than Michigan State's blowout stack.

The bottom Line

Michigan State by about two, in the neighborhood of 26-24, in a game that is close to a coin flip. Cam Edwards is the reason to believe in the higher end of that: 210 carries and 15 touchdowns worth of workload aimed at a front seven with three new linemen and a secondary that has never played a snap together. If he gets going early, the Spartans control the clock and this turns into a comfortable Michigan State night. If Toledo's Mercer transplants hold the point of attack and John Alan Richter protects the ball against a defense that intercepted five passes all of last season, this is a one-score game in the fourth quarter, and the Rockets win it more often than the logos suggest.