What separates Michigan State and Toledo

◄ToledofavorsMichigan State►

Roster talentoverall talent level of the roster — recruiting pedigree plus an independent preseason roster gradeMichigan State +25

Last season's body of worklast year's power rating, regressed toward the averageToledo +11

Returning productionhow much of last year's production is back this seasonToledo +10

Transfer portalnet proven talent gained vs lost in transfers — it raises or lowers a roster's projected strengthToledo +7

Quarterbackthe projected starter's quality and how settled the job isMichigan State +1

Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Michigan State are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).