Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASOTeam statsCCU
- Q4 3:18GASOGavin Stewart 39 Yd Field Goal 26–6
- Q4 5:56GASOJalen White 2 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)23–6
- Q4 14:56GASOGavin Stewart 36 Yd Field Goal 16–6
- Q3 12:43CCUKade Hensley 24 Yd Field Goal 13–6
- Q2 1:29GASOGavin Stewart 27 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q1 2:46CCUKade Hensley 39 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 6:55GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 30 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)10–0
- Q1 8:17GASOGavin Stewart 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CCU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 29% success rate
- PassJC French IV 25/38, 294 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen White 13 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDerwin Burgess Jr. 8 REC, 98 YDS
- PassEthan Vasko 10/25, 92 YDS, 2 INT
- RushBraydon Bennett 16 CAR, 138 YDS
- RecSenika McKie 5 REC, 78 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGASO up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,298 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:55GASO +18%
JC French pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Gavin Stewart KICK)
- Q1 8:17GASO +9%
Gavin Stewart 22 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 12:43CCU +8%
Kade Hensley 24 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 1:29GASO +8%
Gavin Stewart 27 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:56GASO +8%
Gavin Stewart 36 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:05GASO +7%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GASO 12
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Southern vs. Coastal Carolina?
Georgia Southern 26, Coastal Carolina 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CCU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GASO | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 290 |
| 294 | Passing yards | 117 |
| 90 | Rushing yards | 163 |
| 21 | First downs | 12 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 25/38 | Comp/Att | 11/32 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 3.7 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 6.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 38:45 | Possession | 21:15 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:57 GASO punt on 4th & 2 at GASO 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:18GASOGavin Stewart 39 Yd Field Goal 26–6
- Q4 5:56GASOJalen White 2 Yd Run (Gavin Stewart Kick)23–6
- Q4 14:56GASOGavin Stewart 36 Yd Field Goal 16–6
- Q3 12:43CCUKade Hensley 24 Yd Field Goal 13–6
- Q2 1:29GASOGavin Stewart 27 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q1 2:46CCUKade Hensley 39 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 6:55GASOMarcus Sanders Jr. 30 Yd pass from JC French (Gavin Stewart Kick)10–0
- Q1 8:17GASOGavin Stewart 22 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1386, GASO Elo 1386 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU -2.4 (58% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#56 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #109 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Georgia Southern leads 8–4 · Georgia Southern has won 3 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| GASO | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.0 (#93) | CORE overall | -11.9 (#106) |
| -2 / +6 | offense / defense | -3 / +9 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.27 |
| 2.47 | allowed / drive | 2.56 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →