Massachusetts vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MASSTeam statsM-OH
- OT 0:00M-OHDom Dzioban 43 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q4 0:00M-OHDom Dzioban 47 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q4 0:40MASSJacob Lurie 23 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q4 8:11MASSCJ Hester 1 Yd Run (Jacob Lurie Kick)17–17
- Q3 3:11M-OHJavon Tracy 7 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)10–17
- Q2 2:58M-OHDom Dzioban 37 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 6:25MASSJacob Lurie 45 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 2:39MASSJakobie Keeney-James 64 Yd pass from Taisun Phommachanh (Jacob Lurie Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:27M-OHKeyon Mozee 27 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- M-OH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MASS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.8 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassTaisun Phommachanh 9/22, 173 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTaisun Phommachanh 18 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecJakobie Keeney-James 4 REC, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrett Gabbert 16/25, 181 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKeyon Mozee 9 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJavon Tracy 5 REC, 49 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,296 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00M-OH +99%
Dom Dzioban 47 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:40MASS +34%
Jacob Lurie 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 8:11MASS +34%
CJ Hester run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Lurie KICK)
- Q4 6:04MASS +21%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Jakobie Keeney-James for 28 yds to the M-OH 36 for a 1ST down
- Q4 8:07M-OH +17%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the M-OH 23
- Q3 3:11M-OH +16%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 7 yds for a TD (Dom Dzioban KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Massachusetts vs. Miami (OH)?
Massachusetts 20, Miami (OH) 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
| MASS | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 344 | Total yards | 349 |
| 173 | Passing yards | 181 |
| 171 | Rushing yards | 168 |
| 15 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 1-8 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 9/22 | Comp/Att | 16/25 |
| 7.9 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 9-65 |
| 30:51 | Possession | 29:09 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:46 M-OH punt on 4th & 12 at MASS 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.00 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00M-OHDom Dzioban 43 Yd Field Goal20–23
- Q4 0:00M-OHDom Dzioban 47 Yd Field Goal 20–20
- Q4 0:40MASSJacob Lurie 23 Yd Field Goal 20–17
- Q4 8:11MASSCJ Hester 1 Yd Run (Jacob Lurie Kick)17–17
- Q3 3:11M-OHJavon Tracy 7 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)10–17
- Q2 2:58M-OHDom Dzioban 37 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 6:25MASSJacob Lurie 45 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 2:39MASSJakobie Keeney-James 64 Yd pass from Taisun Phommachanh (Jacob Lurie Kick)7–7
- Q1 6:27M-OHKeyon Mozee 27 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1450, MASS Elo 1063 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects M-OH -17.9 (88% to win) — 2.9 points clear of M-OH's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MASS | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.7 (#117) | CORE overall | +1.4 (#63) |
| -2 / +13 | offense / defense | -1 / -3 |
| 1.80 | points / drive | 2.15 |
| 3.63 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -9 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →