#8Jarrett Stidham

QB·Auburn·2018 20177.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jarrett Stidham is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Auburn. Jarrett's 2018 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 420 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jarrett Stidham's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

224/369 Comp/Att2795 Pass yards18 Pass TD5 INT60.7% Comp %

Rushing

-5 Rush yards3 Rush TD71 Carries-0.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency45
Volume100
Dual-Threat31
Consistency62
Clutch64

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.28 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.59 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Purdue (SP+ 7).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsWashington	W21-16	19.9	26/36	274	1	0	17	0	0.40
2	vsAlabama State	W63-9	—	6/11	113	1	0	8	1	0.47
3	vsLSU	L21-22	24.2	16/28	198	1	2	5	0	0.32
4	vsArkansas	W34-3	4.5	15/22	134	0	0	-5	1	-0.11
5	vsSouthern Miss	W24-13	-5.0	19/33	245	2	0	-26	0	0.15
6	@Mississippi State	L9-23	23.2	19/38	214	0	0	-22	0	-0.02
7	vsTennessee	L24-30	5.5	28/45	322	2	2	-7	0	0.18
8	@Ole Miss	W31-16	9.8	13/22	215	1	0	9	0	0.37
10	vsTexas A&M	W28-24	21.6	18/29	239	2	0	-15	0	0.43
11	@Georgia	L10-27	32.9	24/36	163	0	0	36	0	0.01
12	vsLiberty	W53-0	-19.7	12/18	178	2	0	-3	1	0.48
13	@Alabama	L21-52	36.3	13/30	127	1	1	-8	0	-0.01
1	vsPurdue	W63-14	6.5	15/21	373	5	0	6	0	1.59

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.5%

Passing plays

96.8%

Rushing plays

10.2%

Standard downs

42.0%

Passing downs

64.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.32
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.27 / 0.05

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Auburn	5.9	0.439	—	190.7
2018	Auburn	7.2	0.475	+0.04	213.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.