#4Luke Falk

QB·Washington State·2016 201510.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Luke Falk is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Washington State. Luke's 2016 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 672 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Luke Falk's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

443/633 Comp/Att4468 Pass yards38 Pass TD11 INT70.0% Comp %

Rushing

-68 Rush yards0 Rush TD66 Carries-1.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency38
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency78
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.76 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Arizona (SP+ -5).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	EPA/play
1	vsEastern Washington	L42-45	—	41/51	418	4	1	76.3	-11	0.42
2	@Boise State	L28-31	11.5	55/71	480	4	1	68.1	-2	0.14
3	vsIdaho	W56-6	-8.6	21/36	226	3	0	79.0	12	0.29
5	vsOregon	W51-33	6.1	36/48	371	1	0	84.0	7	0.36
6	@Stanford	W42-16	16.4	30/41	357	4	2	84.1	-3	0.63
7	vsUCLA	W27-21	9.1	28/48	261	0	1	47.2	-1	0.03
8	@Arizona State	W37-32	-3.0	42/53	398	3	0	64.2	-61	0.25
9	@Oregon State	W35-31	-4.6	33/46	415	5	0	72.5	-3	0.49
10	vsArizona	W69-7	-4.5	32/35	311	4	0	94.0	8	0.76
11	vsCalifornia	W56-21	2.4	36/50	373	5	1	83.4	6	0.47
12	@Colorado	L24-38	6.3	26/53	325	3	1	53.2	-4	0.08
13	vsWashington	L17-45	26.7	33/50	269	1	3	54.9	-4	0.09
1	vsMinnesota	L12-17	12.6	30/51	264	1	1	20.7	-12	0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

67.4%

Passing plays

95.4%

Rushing plays

11.6%

Standard downs

62.3%

Passing downs

79.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.30 / -0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2015 — 2016 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2015	Washington State	6.4	0.370	—	245.3
2016	Washington State	10.1	0.470	+0.10	282.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.