Kansas State vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsKU
- Q4 4:17KSUAvery Johnson 3 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)42–17
- Q3 1:03KSUJayce Brown 78 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)35–17
- Q3 1:21KULaith Marjan 47 Yd Field Goal 28–17
- Q3 7:23KSUDeVon Rice 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)28–14
- Q2 0:30KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 3 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)21–14
- Q1 0:12KSUJaron Tibbs 27 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)21–7
- Q1 9:16KSURalph Ortiz 20 Yd Fumble Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:50KSUAvery Johnson 2 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:50KUJalon Daniels 6 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAvery Johnson 11/17, 231 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJoe Jackson 20 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecJayce Brown 4 REC, 160 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJalon Daniels 17/35, 129 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDaniel Hishaw Jr. 19 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCam Pickett 6 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:23KSU +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Rice rush middle for 1 yard gain to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 9:50KSU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson rush left for 2 yards gain to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 9:16KSU +18%
Ralph Ortiz 20 Yd Fumble Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
- Q1 0:12KSU +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete deep middle to #12 J.Tibbs caught at KU00, for 27 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:30KU +17%
Shotgun #9 D.Hishaw Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 1:03KSU +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Johnson pass complete deep left to #1 J.Brown caught at KU43, for 78 yards to the KU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Kansas?
Kansas State 42, Kansas 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
| KSU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 371 | Total yards | 247 |
| 231 | Passing yards | 137 |
| 140 | Rushing yards | 110 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-5 |
| 11/17 | Comp/Att | 18/37 |
| 13.6 | Yards per pass | 3.7 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 5-46 |
| 27:20 | Possession | 32:40 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:33 KU go for it on 4th & 6 at KU 30. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.47 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:17KSUAvery Johnson 3 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)42–17
- Q3 1:03KSUJayce Brown 78 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)35–17
- Q3 1:21KULaith Marjan 47 Yd Field Goal 28–17
- Q3 7:23KSUDeVon Rice 1 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)28–14
- Q2 0:30KUDaniel Hishaw Jr. 3 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)21–14
- Q1 0:12KSUJaron Tibbs 27 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)21–7
- Q1 9:16KSURalph Ortiz 20 Yd Fumble Return (Luis Rodriguez Kick)14–7
- Q1 9:50KSUAvery Johnson 2 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:50KUJalon Daniels 6 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1621, KSU Elo 1695 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU +0.6 (50% to win) — 4.1 points clear of KSU's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #86 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Kansas leads 65–53–5 · Kansas State has won 17 straight · 37% have been one-possession games
| KSU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#49) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#57) |
| +3 / -4 | offense / defense | +10 / +6 |
| 2.44 | points / drive | 2.34 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →