California vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CALTeam statsLOU
- OT 0:00CALJacob De Jesus 3 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 29–26
- OT 0:00LOUCooper Ranvier 49 Yd Field Goal 23–26
- Q4 11:08LOUCooper Ranvier 39 Yd Field Goal 23–23
- Q3 0:23CALChase Meyer 26 Yd Field Goal 23–20
- Q3 7:43LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)20–20
- Q3 11:34CALChase Meyer 45 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 0:07CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)17–13
- Q2 2:34LOUCooper Ranvier 49 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 5:58CALChase Meyer 27 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 11:01LOUCooper Ranvier 30 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 0:40CALLandon Morris 20 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:11LOUDuke Watson 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 30/47, 323 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKendrick Raphael 19 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJacob De Jesus 16 REC, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMiller Moss 20/38, 203 YDS, 1 INT
- RushKeyjuan Brown 14 CAR, 136 YDS
- RecCaullin Lacy 4 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAL up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- OT 0:00CAL +80%
Jacob De Jesus 3 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
- Q1 11:18LOU +68%
PENALTY CAL False Start (#66 J.Spasojevic-Moko) 5 yards from LOU10 to LOU15. NO PLAY
- Q4 1:09CAL +42%
#40 B.Honore Jr. punt 37 yards to the LOU25, out of bounds at LOU25
- OT 0:00CAL +42%
#22 K.Brown rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CAL14 (#41 L.Ferrelli) PENALTY LOU Block Below Waist (#85 N.Kurisky) 15 yards from CAL16 to CAL31. NO PLAY
- OT 0:00LOU +32%
Cooper Ranvier 49 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 0:23CAL +28%
#40 B.Honore Jr. punt 18 yards to the CAL50, out of bounds at LOU50
FAQ
What was the final score of California vs. Louisville?
California 29, Louisville 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CAL | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 427 | Total yards | 351 |
| 350 | Passing yards | 203 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 148 |
| 21 | First downs | 16 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 31/49 | Comp/Att | 20/39 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-60 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 29:52 | Possession | 30:08 |
Costliest call
Q4 0:01 LOU go for it on 4th & 12 at LOU 48. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00CALJacob De Jesus 3 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 29–26
- OT 0:00LOUCooper Ranvier 49 Yd Field Goal 23–26
- Q4 11:08LOUCooper Ranvier 39 Yd Field Goal 23–23
- Q3 0:23CALChase Meyer 26 Yd Field Goal 23–20
- Q3 7:43LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)20–20
- Q3 11:34CALChase Meyer 45 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 0:07CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)17–13
- Q2 2:34LOUCooper Ranvier 49 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q2 5:58CALChase Meyer 27 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 11:01LOUCooper Ranvier 30 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 0:40CALLandon Morris 20 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–7
- Q1 5:11LOUDuke Watson 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1737, CAL Elo 1392 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -16.2 (86% to win) — 2.3 points clear of CAL's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #6 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #17 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| CAL | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.6 (#85) | CORE overall | +18.6 (#18) |
| -4 / +3 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 2.48 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +12 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →