Hawai'i vs. Oregon: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsORE
- Q4 2:28HAWAlex Perry 1 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)10–55
- Q4 7:46ORETraeshon Holden 60 Yd pass from Ty Thompson (Camden Lewis Kick)3–55
- Q3 1:27ORENoah Whittington 34 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)3–48
- Q3 11:30ORETez Johnson 12 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)3–41
- Q2 0:00HAWMatthew Shipley 29 Yd Field Goal 3–34
- Q2 3:21ORECamden Lewis 22 Yd Field Goal 0–34
- Q2 12:01OREJordan James 3 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)0–31
- Q1 0:06ORETraeshon Holden 1 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)0–24
- Q1 5:52OREJordan James 22 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)0–17
- Q1 12:24ORECamden Lewis 43 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:02ORETez Johnson 49 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBrayden Schager 27/43, 131 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordan Johnson 4 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecPofele Ashlock 8 REC, 47 YDS
- PassBo Nix 21/27, 247 YDS, 3 TD
- RushNoah Whittington 5 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTroy Franklin 4 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 102 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:02ORE +6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Tez Johnson for 49 yds for a TD (Camden Lewis KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Oregon?
Hawai'i 10, Oregon 55.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| HAW | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 201 | Total yards | 560 |
| 142 | Passing yards | 333 |
| 59 | Rushing yards | 227 |
| 15 | First downs | 25 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 28/44 | Comp/Att | 26/34 |
| 3.2 | Yards per pass | 9.8 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 7.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-27 | Penalties | 9-76 |
| 30:23 | Possession | 29:37 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:00 HAW field goal on 4th & 1 at ORE 12. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:28HAWAlex Perry 1 Yd pass from Brayden Schager (Matthew Shipley Kick)10–55
- Q4 7:46ORETraeshon Holden 60 Yd pass from Ty Thompson (Camden Lewis Kick)3–55
- Q3 1:27ORENoah Whittington 34 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)3–48
- Q3 11:30ORETez Johnson 12 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)3–41
- Q2 0:00HAWMatthew Shipley 29 Yd Field Goal 3–34
- Q2 3:21ORECamden Lewis 22 Yd Field Goal 0–34
- Q2 12:01OREJordan James 3 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)0–31
- Q1 0:06ORETraeshon Holden 1 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)0–24
- Q1 5:52OREJordan James 22 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)0–17
- Q1 12:24ORECamden Lewis 43 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 14:02ORETez Johnson 49 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ORE Elo 1659, HAW Elo 1220 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ORE -20 (90% to win) — 18.0 points clear of HAW's market line of -38. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOregon leads 5–3 · 38% have been one-possession games
| HAW | ORE | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.6 (#121) | CORE overall | +40.9 (#1) |
| -8 / +10 | offense / defense | +28 / -13 |
| 1.78 | points / drive | 4.02 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +16 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →