Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsCMU
- Q4 0:49BGSUTyrone Broden 31 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)34–18
- Q4 6:13CMUJoel Wilson 8 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Jase Bauer Pass to Carlos Carriere for Two-Point Conversion)27–18
- Q4 9:49BGSUDemetrius Hardamon 45 Yd Fumble Return (Mason Lawler Kick)27–10
- Q4 12:53BGSUMason Lawler 19 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 13:46CMUJake Tafelski 3 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder Kick)17–10
- Q2 0:22BGSUTyrone Broden 11 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)17–3
- Q2 10:27BGSUMason Lawler 38 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 4:15CMUMarshall Meeder 52 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 10:48BGSUHarold Fannin Jr. 1 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BGSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.9 vs 3rd & 7.8
- CMU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassMatt McDonald 18/20, 253 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJaison Patterson 18 CAR, 101 YDS
- RecOJ Hiliare 4 REC, 105 YDS
- PassJase Bauer 18/25, 185 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJase Bauer 16 CAR, 109 YDS
- RecJoel Wilson 8 REC, 75 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:22BGSU +25%
Tyrone Broden 11 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)
- Q4 9:49BGSU +20%
Demetrius Hardamon 45 Yd Fumble Return (Mason Lawler Kick)
- Q3 13:46CMU +17%
PENALTY BGS Delay Of Game 5 yards from CMU45 to CMU50. NO PLAY
- Q1 10:48BGSU +16%
Harold Fannin Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)
- Q4 12:53BGSU +14%
Mason Lawler 19 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 10:27BGSU +13%
Mason Lawler 38 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan?
Bowling Green 34, Central Michigan 18.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BGSU | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 369 | Total yards | 306 |
| 253 | Passing yards | 204 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 102 |
| 16 | First downs | 17 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/20 | Comp/Att | 21/30 |
| 12.7 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 17-146 | Penalties | 6-44 |
| 33:32 | Possession | 26:28 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:53 BGSU field goal on 4th & 2 at CMU 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:49BGSUTyrone Broden 31 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)34–18
- Q4 6:13CMUJoel Wilson 8 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Jase Bauer Pass to Carlos Carriere for Two-Point Conversion)27–18
- Q4 9:49BGSUDemetrius Hardamon 45 Yd Fumble Return (Mason Lawler Kick)27–10
- Q4 12:53BGSUMason Lawler 19 Yd Field Goal 20–10
- Q3 13:46CMUJake Tafelski 3 Yd Run (Marshall Meeder Kick)17–10
- Q2 0:22BGSUTyrone Broden 11 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)17–3
- Q2 10:27BGSUMason Lawler 38 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 4:15CMUMarshall Meeder 52 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 10:48BGSUHarold Fannin Jr. 1 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CMU Elo 1389, BGSU Elo 1107 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CMU -13.7 (82% to win) — 7.7 points clear of CMU's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #77 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Central Michigan leads 17–16 · 42% have been one-possession games
| BGSU | CMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.2 (#106) | CORE overall | -11.3 (#105) |
| -6 / +6 | offense / defense | -7 / +4 |
| 1.46 | points / drive | 1.63 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.29 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →