Missouri vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MIZTeam statsFLA
- Q4 9:08MIZTucker McCann 40 Yd Field Goal 38–17
- Q3 0:20FLAJosh Hammond 7 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)35–17
- Q3 5:00MIZEmanuel Hall 4 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Tucker McCann Kick)35–10
- Q3 10:02MIZKam Scott 41 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Tucker McCann Kick)28–10
- Q2 1:42FLAFeleipe Franks 3 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)21–10
- Q2 6:06MIZDamarea Crockett 4 Yd Run (Tucker McCann Kick)21–3
- Q2 13:12MIZAlbert Okwuegbunam 22 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Tucker McCann Kick)14–3
- Q1 3:46MIZLarry Rountree III 27 Yd Run (Tucker McCann Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:18FLAEvan McPherson 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDrew Lock 24/32, 250 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDamarea Crockett 21 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEmanuel Hall 4 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKyle Trask 10/18, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLa'Mical Perine 10 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecKadarius Toney 2 REC, 72 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIZ up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:46MIZ +19%
Larry Rountree III run for 27 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)
- Q2 13:12MIZ +17%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 22 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)
- Q2 6:06MIZ +12%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)
- Q2 1:42FLA +11%
Feleipe Franks run for 3 yds for a TD (Evan McPherson KICK)
- Q3 10:02MIZ +11%
Drew Lock pass complete to Kam Scott for 41 yds for a TD McCann, Tucker kick attempt failed, PENALTY UF offside (Henderson,C.) 2 yards to the UF1, NO PLAY. (Tucker McC…
- Q1 7:18FLA +8%
Evan McPherson 32 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Missouri vs. Florida?
Missouri 38, Florida 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MIZ | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 471 | Total yards | 323 |
| 250 | Passing yards | 210 |
| 221 | Rushing yards | 113 |
| 22 | First downs | 17 |
| 11-18 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 24/32 | Comp/Att | 19/40 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 5.3 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-84 | Penalties | 8-66 |
| 34:36 | Possession | 25:24 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 MIZ punt on 4th & 15 at FLA 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:08MIZTucker McCann 40 Yd Field Goal 38–17
- Q3 0:20FLAJosh Hammond 7 Yd pass from Kyle Trask (Evan McPherson Kick)35–17
- Q3 5:00MIZEmanuel Hall 4 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Tucker McCann Kick)35–10
- Q3 10:02MIZKam Scott 41 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Tucker McCann Kick)28–10
- Q2 1:42FLAFeleipe Franks 3 Yd Run (Evan McPherson Kick)21–10
- Q2 6:06MIZDamarea Crockett 4 Yd Run (Tucker McCann Kick)21–3
- Q2 13:12MIZAlbert Okwuegbunam 22 Yd pass from Drew Lock (Tucker McCann Kick)14–3
- Q1 3:46MIZLarry Rountree III 27 Yd Run (Tucker McCann Kick)7–3
- Q1 7:18FLAEvan McPherson 32 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1663, MIZ Elo 1734 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +0.4 (50% to win) — 6.4 points clear of MIZ's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #71 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds · #12 of 64 in 2018 by biggest poll gap.
The 2018 upset archive →Missouri leads 7–6 · 38% have been one-possession games
| MIZ | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.3 (#8) | CORE overall | +17.3 (#14) |
| +11 / -11 | offense / defense | +9 / -8 |
| 2.54 | points / drive | 2.43 |
| 1.95 | allowed / drive | 1.56 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →