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Mississippi State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

SEC · 21-13 · AdjEM +13.3, 54 of 363 nationally.

2022-23 seasonthrough ratings as of 2023-04-0323 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2023-04-03

Every team →
AdjEM
+13.354 of 363
AdjO
103.5139 of 363
AdjD
90.314 of 363
AdjT
66.3331 of 363

Mississippi State went from +11.0 (#45) on 2022-11-06 to +13.3 (#54) on 2023-04-03, peaking at +19.7 (#14) on 2022-11-21.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2022-11-062023-04-03

Four factorsraw season rates · 34 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
46.7%328
TOV%
18.3%271
OREB%
35.2%7
FTA/FGA
33.8%99
Opp eFG%
46.2%17
Opp TOV%
20.1%34
DREB%
73.3%189
Opp FTA/FGA
27.6%78

Résumé21-13 · against the ratings of 2023-04-03

Schedule strength
+7.858 of 363
Non-conference
-1.0221 of 363
Luck
+1.9%131 of 363
Wins above bubble
-0.053 of 363
Quad 1
4-9
Quad 2
4-3
Quad 3
5-1
Quad 4
8-0

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players15 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
D.J. JeffriesF3431.18.86.41.841.6%43.6%19.3%27.2%57.9%
Tolu SmithF3427.615.78.51.757.2%58.4%29.8%—58.8%
Dashawn DavisG3129.68.71.93.546.0%50.1%18.3%33.9%76.5%
Cameron MatthewsF3426.86.95.62.350.0%54.7%15.5%15.2%69.6%
Shakeel MooreG3226.39.83.02.347.1%49.6%23.2%26.5%76.5%
Eric Reed Jr.G3417.73.72.00.836.8%39.1%14.9%23.5%68.2%
Will McNair Jr.F3412.63.33.30.446.6%48.1%17.2%14.3%57.7%
Tyler StevensonF3411.03.91.80.342.9%46.7%22.1%0.0%76.7%
Shawn Jones Jr.G2412.13.21.60.446.0%47.4%17.3%26.0%61.5%
KeShawn MurphyF1910.23.31.70.850.0%51.5%19.4%28.1%63.6%
Jamel Horton Jr.G1412.31.41.01.431.0%31.9%13.4%26.7%40.0%
Kimani HamiltonF127.02.61.00.646.2%51.2%21.8%30.8%77.8%
MJ RussellG106.61.70.60.134.8%36.2%21.6%16.7%100.0%
Isaac StansburyG81.30.00.00.1—0.0%7.7%—0.0%
Justin RumphG81.00.80.10.0150.0%150.0%13.0%100.0%—

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games21-13

“Ours” is our projected margin for Mississippi State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-07vsTexas A&M-Corpus ChristiQ4#201W 63-44+12.5
11-11nAkronQ3#112W 73-54+5.2
11-13vsArkansas-Pine BluffQ4#339W 80-47+20.5
11-17vsSouth DakotaQ4#311W 79-42+17.2
11-21nMarquetteQ1#19W 58-55+8.1
11-23nUtahQ2#81W 52-49+9.3
11-28vsOmahaQ4#326W 74-54+28.4
12-03vsMississippi Valley StateQ4#359W 82-52+33.9
12-11@MinnesotaQ3#214W 69-51+9.4
12-14nJackson StateQ4#318W 69-59+20.9
12-17vsNichollsQ4#270W 68-66+21.5
12-20nDrakeQ1#46L 52-58+5.7
12-28vsAlabamaQ1#2L 67-78+0.2
01-03@TennesseeQ1#4L 53-87-14.3
01-07vsOle MissQ3#114W 64-54+7.7
01-11@GeorgiaQ3#162L 50-58+1.4
01-14@AuburnQ1#34L 63-69-7.0
01-17vsTennesseeQ1#4L 59-70-8.6
01-21vsFloridaQ2#51L 59-61+1.4
01-25@AlabamaQ1#2L 63-66-14.1
01-28vsTCUQ1#22W 81-74-0.2
01-31@South CarolinaQ3#236W 66-51+10.5
02-04vsMissouriQ2#60W 63-52+3.7
02-08vsLSUQ3#141W 64-53+10.6
02-11@ArkansasQ1#14W 70-64-6.5
02-15vsKentuckyQ1#18L 68-71+2.7
02-18@Ole MissQ2#114W 69-61+2.8
02-21@MissouriQ1#60L 64-66-1.6
02-25vsTexas A&MQ1#28W 69-62+1.8
02-28vsSouth CarolinaQ4#236W 74-68+17.7
03-04@VanderbiltQ2#79L 72-77+0.3
03-09nFloridaQ2#51W 69-68-0.5
03-10nAlabamaQ1#2L 49-72-9.7
03-14nPittsburghQ2#70L 59-60+2.4

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 363 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.