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Mississippi State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

SEC · 18-16 · AdjEM +10.4, 58 of 359 nationally.

2021-22 seasonthrough ratings as of 2022-04-0421 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2022-04-04

Every team →
AdjEM
+10.458 of 359
AdjO
106.160 of 359
AdjD
95.762 of 359
AdjT
67.9271 of 359

Mississippi State went from +7.9 (#11) on 2021-11-15 to +10.4 (#57) on 2022-04-04, peaking at +11.3 (#28) on 2022-01-03.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2021-11-152022-04-04

Four factorsraw season rates · 34 complete games

Leaderboards →
eFG%
49.6%191
TOV%
18.5%258
OREB%
32.6%17
FTA/FGA
38.1%19
Opp eFG%
49.6%160
Opp TOV%
18.4%100
DREB%
76.7%70
Opp FTA/FGA
28.3%123

Résumé18-16 · against the ratings of 2022-04-04

Schedule strength
+6.649 of 359
Non-conference
+2.4116 of 359
Luck
-6.3%305 of 359
Wins above bubble
-2.9102 of 359
Quad 1
1-11
Quad 2
4-3
Quad 3
6-2
Quad 4
7-0

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players15 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →
PlayerGMPGPPGRPGAPGeFG%TS%USG%3P%FT%
Iverson MolinarG3434.117.53.13.648.3%55.3%27.6%25.2%86.8%
Garrison BrooksF3430.310.46.60.850.2%52.7%19.1%34.2%69.2%
D.J. JeffriesF3428.18.94.21.947.9%51.2%19.1%29.3%72.6%
Shakeel MooreG3428.08.73.02.247.8%50.5%19.0%31.4%76.5%
Cameron MatthewsF3318.22.93.91.255.9%57.0%9.9%30.8%58.3%
Tolu SmithF2128.314.26.51.057.6%60.1%25.0%—65.0%
Andersson GarciaF3314.74.34.21.457.2%58.2%17.4%31.3%58.0%
Javian DavisF3211.73.52.30.445.5%51.7%19.2%—63.6%
Rocket WattsG1913.44.40.90.647.6%49.2%20.8%26.7%100.0%
Cam CarterG278.52.20.80.945.3%48.7%18.0%30.0%68.8%
Derek FountainF258.41.81.80.436.4%43.8%15.0%16.7%77.8%
Tyler BrumfieldG51.80.40.00.0—52.6%10.9%—50.0%
Justin RumphG51.60.60.20.075.0%75.0%12.9%50.0%—
Isaac StansburyG61.30.80.20.0125.0%125.0%12.9%100.0%—
Alden ApplewhiteF23.51.02.00.00.0%25.3%36.5%0.0%100.0%

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games18-16

“Ours” is our projected margin for Mississippi State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

DateOpponentQuadResultOurs
11-10vsNorth AlabamaQ4#300W 75-49—
11-13vsMontanaQ4#250W 86-49—
11-17vsDetroit MercyQ4#220W 77-64+19.5
11-21vsMorehead StateQ3#100W 66-46+18.5
11-25nLouisvilleQ3#160L 58-72+7.6
11-27nRichmondQ2#93W 82-71+4.3
12-02vsLamarQ4#347W 75-60+19.1
12-05vsMinnesotaQ3#141L 76-81+12.1
12-11nColorado StateQ1#40L 63-66-0.8
12-14vsGeorgia StateQ4#174W 79-50+12.4
12-17vsFurmanQ2#64W 69-66+9.9
12-21nWinthropQ3#137W 84-63+5.7
12-29vsArkansasQ1#25W 81-68+10.8
01-08@Ole MissQ2#126L 72-82+1.4
01-12vsGeorgiaQ4#258W 88-72+16.1
01-15vsAlabamaQ2#42W 78-76+3.5
01-19@FloridaQ1#68L 72-80-5.2
01-22vsOle MissQ3#126W 78-60+9.8
01-25@KentuckyQ1#8L 74-82-10.8
01-29@Texas TechQ1#5L 50-76-8.9
02-01vsSouth CarolinaQ3#113W 78-64+8.8
02-05@ArkansasQ1#25L 55-63-4.1
02-09vsTennesseeQ1#7L 63-72-2.1
02-12@LSUQ1#19L 65-69-8.3
02-16@AlabamaQ1#42L 75-80-5.6
02-18vsMissouriQ4#182W 68-49+10.6
02-20@MissouriQ3#182W 58-56+3.3
02-23@South CarolinaQ2#113L 56-66+0.9
02-26vsVanderbiltQ2#65W 74-69+5.9
03-02vsAuburnQ1#14L 68-81-2.2
03-05@Texas A&MQ1#47L 64-67-1.6
03-10nSouth CarolinaQ3#113W 73-51+3.6
03-11nTennesseeQ1#7L 59-72-7.0
03-16@VirginiaQ2#81L 57-60-1.0

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 359 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.