Northwestern State

In progress. College basketball is still being built and is not in the navigation. The ratings are ours and are shown with the date they were fitted; they are not graded in public.

Southland · 6-24 · AdjEM -16.8, 332 of 362 nationally.

2023-24 seasonthrough ratings as of 2024-04-0824 weekly snapshots

Adjusted ratingas of 2024-04-08

Every team →

AdjEM: -16.8332 of 362
AdjO: 94.9320 of 362
AdjD: 111.7336 of 362
AdjT: 69.2228 of 362

Northwestern State went from -9.7 (#288) on 2023-11-05 to -16.8 (#332) on 2024-04-08, peaking at -9.7 (#288) on 2023-11-05.

AdjEM in each weekly snapshot this season; the dashed line is an average D1 team (0).

2023-11-052024-04-08

Four factorsraw season rates · 30 complete games

Leaderboards →

eFG%: 47.6%289
TOV%: 18.0%313
OREB%: 28.1%134
FTA/FGA: 36.8%75
Opp eFG%: 52.1%268
Opp TOV%: 17.5%74
DREB%: 67.4%348
Opp FTA/FGA: 41.4%333

Résumé6-24 · against the ratings of 2024-04-08

Schedule strength: -7.6334 of 362
Non-conference: +0.5176 of 362
Luck: -12.1%356 of 362
Wins above bubble: -20.1350 of 362

Quad 1: 0-2
Quad 2: 0-3
Quad 3: 0-3
Quad 4: 6-16

Quadrants use the selection committee's boundaries (Quad 1 is a home game against the top 30, a neutral one against the top 50, or a road game against the top 75) applied to our ranking, not to the NCAA's NET, so they will not match a NET team sheet game for game. Luck and wins above bubble compare the record with today's ratings; they are not a record of our projections.

Players16 who played · most minutes first

National leaders →

Player	G	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	eFG%	TS%	USG%	3P%	FT%
Chase ForteG	32	31.0	9.8	4.3	3.8	45.0%	47.4%	20.7%	23.3%	53.7%
Braelon BushG	31	31.5	10.3	2.1	3.1	44.4%	48.7%	19.9%	28.4%	81.7%
Cliff DavisG	31	31.4	13.7	3.6	1.7	52.9%	55.5%	21.9%	39.2%	84.2%
Justin WilsonF	32	19.7	9.0	4.8	0.4	65.9%	65.3%	19.9%	—	59.8%
Jimel LaneF	31	19.5	5.5	3.4	0.5	49.0%	50.6%	17.3%	28.9%	60.5%
Duane PoseyG	29	17.9	6.7	4.3	0.4	51.2%	58.1%	20.4%	0.0%	72.6%
Chris MubiruG	32	15.6	3.4	2.0	0.5	43.2%	45.6%	14.1%	29.9%	72.2%
Jae SlackF	24	14.6	5.2	2.7	0.4	44.9%	49.0%	20.3%	36.7%	67.4%
Jamison EppsG	11	25.2	6.3	6.1	1.5	38.6%	41.2%	20.2%	15.0%	80.0%
J.C. Riley Jr.C	23	11.3	3.0	2.7	0.3	57.1%	58.9%	12.7%	0.0%	63.6%
Ryan ForrestG	10	20.2	11.8	2.1	0.8	42.2%	45.8%	37.0%	22.9%	61.9%
Micah ThomasG	7	21.9	8.7	1.6	1.1	45.5%	50.6%	22.4%	42.1%	100.0%
Anthony ThomasG	4	20.0	5.0	1.3	0.5	33.9%	32.9%	23.4%	14.3%	20.0%
JT WarrenF	6	13.2	5.2	2.5	0.3	41.3%	49.9%	20.4%	20.0%	70.6%
Karlin HardySG	11	3.2	0.4	0.5	0.0	25.0%	25.3%	14.2%	33.3%	25.0%
Mitch WilliamsG	6	4.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	50.0%	50.0%	12.5%	33.3%	—

Season totals for every game played, from ESPN's statistics feed. In seasons before 2025-26 a roster can be missing a player or hold one who was elsewhere; usage is blank where the players listed do not add up to the team's minutes.

Games6-24

“Ours” is our projected margin for Northwestern State, from the snapshot dated before each game. Games before the season's first snapshot have none.

Date	Opponent	Quad	Result	Ours	Pace	Snapshot
11-09	@Tulane	Q2#131	L 71-88	-13.7	71	11-06
11-13	vsStephen F. Austin	Q4#169	L 70-96	-6.2	70	11-06
11-16	nMaine	Q4#244	L 65-78	-1.2	70	11-13
11-17	@North Florida	Q4#251	L 74-80	-6.6	71	11-13
11-18	nPresbyterian	Q4#296	L 75-78	-1.7	70	11-13
11-28	@UL Monroe	Q4#312	L 70-74	-6.7	69	11-27
12-02	@Baylor	Q1#17	L 40-91	-29.4	71	11-27
12-09	@Southern Miss	Q3#235	L 74-83	-15.8	70	12-04
12-12	@Boise State	Q1#32	L 54-95	-23.9	70	12-11
12-16	vsRice	Q4#218	L 51-76	-2.5	71	12-11
12-29	@LSU	Q2#86	L 55-96	-21.0	70	12-25
01-06	@Lamar	Q4#261	L 70-90	-12.2	71	01-01
01-08	vsMcNeese	Q3#91	L 59-68	-15.8	68	01-01
01-13	vsIncarnate Word	Q4#350	W 97-71	+0.5	70	01-08
01-15	vsHouston Christian	Q4#359	L 60-64	+4.9	73	01-08
01-20	@New Orleans	Q4#346	W 92-67	-8.4	72	01-15
01-22	@SE Louisiana	Q4#309	L 62-71	-10.0	69	01-15
01-27	vsTexas A&M-Corpus Christi	Q4#225	L 68-79	-4.9	71	01-22
01-29	@McNeese	Q2#91	L 65-89	-19.4	68	01-22
02-03	vsEast Texas A&M	Q4#338	W 70-57	+1.4	70	01-29
02-05	@Nicholls	Q4#257	L 66-73	-11.7	71	01-29
02-10	vsSE Louisiana	Q4#309	L 59-69	-0.6	68	02-05
02-12	vsNew Orleans	Q4#346	W 70-59	+4.7	71	02-05
02-17	@Incarnate Word	Q4#350	W 81-61	-2.9	70	02-12
02-19	@Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	Q3#225	L 61-72	-12.3	70	02-12
02-24	@Houston Christian	Q4#359	W 86-59	+2.2	71	02-19
03-02	vsLamar	Q4#261	L 77-82	-2.0	70	02-26
03-04	vsNicholls	Q4#257	L 62-68	-1.7	70	02-26
03-06	@East Texas A&M	Q4#338	L 80-83	-2.2	69	03-04
03-10	nEast Texas A&M	Q4#338	L 64-69	+1.0	69	03-04

How this is measured

Ranks are out of 362 rated teams, 1 = best (for AdjD and the defensive factors, 1 = allowed the least). The four factors are raw season rates from box scores.

Every projection uses a rating snapshot dated before the game — the snapshot column shows which. A snapshot dated on or after a game already contains its result, so it is never used to project it; a game before the season's first snapshot gets no number at all. Projected margin is (this team's AdjEM − the opponent's ± home advantage) × expected possessions ÷ 100.