Watchlist
Week 11 of 2026, ranked by a score whose parts are all shown. No term rewards a program for being famous — if a Tuesday MAC game outranks the night game, that is the answer.
The five
- 1Time TBDArizona Stadiummodel Arizona by 0.2
- Projected closeness 34/35
- Team quality 24/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 5/10
- Points on the board 3/10
73score - 2Time TBDFirstBank Stadiummodel Vanderbilt by 1.1
- Projected closeness 31/35
- Team quality 26/30
- Stakes 8/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 3/10
72score - 3Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)model Indiana by 3.1market -10
- Projected closeness 26/35
- Team quality 28/30
- Stakes 15/15
69score - 4Time TBDBeaver Stadiummodel Minnesota by 0.2
- Projected closeness 34/35
- Team quality 20/30
- Stakes 8/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 4/10
68score - 5Time TBDTiger Stadium (LA)model Texas by 6.8market +2.5
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 27/30
- Stakes 15/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 1/10
63score
The rest of the slate
- 6Time TBDDavis Wade Stadiummodel Auburn by 1.1
- Projected closeness 31/35
- Team quality 21/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 4/10
63score - 7Sat, Nov 14 · 7:30 PM ETUniversity Stadium (NM)model New Mexico by 1.4
- Projected closeness 30/35
- Team quality 20/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 5/10
62score - 8Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Norman, OK)model Ole Miss by 6.4market -4
- Projected closeness 19/35
- Team quality 27/30
- Stakes 15/15
61score - 9Time TBDJack Trice Stadiummodel Cincinnati by 0.8
- Projected closeness 32/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
57score - 10Time TBDSanford Stadiummodel Georgia by 10.0
- Projected closeness 13/35
- Team quality 26/30
- Stakes 15/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 1/10
56score - 11Time TBDAmon G. Carter Stadiummodel Kansas State by 3.2
- Projected closeness 25/35
- Team quality 22/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 3/10
56score - 12Fri, Nov 13 · 7:00 PM ETAcrisure Stadiummodel Pittsburgh by 2.7
- Projected closeness 27/35
- Team quality 21/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 3/10
55score - 13Time TBDJoe Aillet Stadiummodel Louisiana Tech by 0.0
- Projected closeness 35/35
- Team quality 9/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 4/10
54score - 14Time TBDAlamodomemodel UTSA by 2.9
- Projected closeness 26/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 2/10
- Points on the board 4/10
54score - 15OhioatMiami (OH)Battle of the BricksTue, Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETYager Stadiummodel Ohio by 0.8
- Projected closeness 32/35
- Team quality 4/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 10/10
- Points on the board 4/10
52score - 16Time TBDFBC Mortgage Stadiummodel Arizona State by 2.3
- Projected closeness 28/35
- Team quality 16/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
50score - 17Thu, Nov 12 · 8:00 PM ETRaymond James Stadiummodel South Florida by 5.4
- Projected closeness 21/35
- Team quality 21/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 4/10
50score - 18Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 PM ETPratt & Whitney Stadiummodel James Madison by 2.9
- Projected closeness 26/35
- Team quality 19/30
- Points on the board 4/10
49score - 19Time TBDKyle Fieldmodel Texas A&M by 16.7market -8.5
- Projected closeness 7/35
- Team quality 26/30
- Stakes 15/15
- Points on the board 2/10
49score - 20Georgia SouthernatGeorgia StateModern Day HateTime TBDCenter Parc Stadiummodel Georgia Southern by 1.1
- Projected closeness 31/35
- Team quality 5/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 8/10
- Points on the board 2/10
49score - 21TroyatSouth AlabamaBattle for the BeltTime TBDHancock Whitney Stadiummodel South Alabama by 3.3
- Projected closeness 25/35
- Team quality 11/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 6/10
- Points on the board 3/10
48score - 22Time TBDRazorback Stadiummodel South Carolina by 6.7
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 21/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 4/10
48score - 23Time TBDKroger Fieldmodel Florida by 6.9
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 4/10
45score - 24Time TBDMilan Puskar Stadiummodel Kansas by 2.6
- Projected closeness 27/35
- Team quality 10/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 4/10
44score - 25Fri, Nov 13 · 9:00 PM ETRose Bowlmodel UCLA by 6.3
- Projected closeness 19/35
- Team quality 16/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 4/10
44score - 26Time TBDBrooks Stadium (SC)model Coastal Carolina by 0.5
- Projected closeness 33/35
- Team quality 5/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 2/10
43score - 27Time TBDChapman Stadiummodel Tulsa by 0.3
- Projected closeness 34/35
- Team quality 2/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
43score - 28Sat, Nov 14 · 4:00 PM ETBobcat Stadium (TX)model Texas State by 4.6
- Projected closeness 22/35
- Team quality 13/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
42score - 29Time TBDOhio Stadiummodel Ohio State by 16.8
- Projected closeness 7/35
- Team quality 22/30
- Stakes 9/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 1/10
42score - 30Time TBDAutzen Stadiummodel Oregon by 17.8market -13.5
- Projected closeness 6/35
- Team quality 26/30
- Stakes 8/15
- Points on the board 1/10
42score - 31Time TBDHard Rock Stadiummodel Miami by 21.3market -21
- Projected closeness 4/35
- Team quality 25/30
- Stakes 8/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 3/10
42score - 32Time TBDRice Stadiummodel Tulane by 3.7
- Projected closeness 24/35
- Team quality 7/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 3/10
41score - 33Time TBDLincoln Financial Fieldmodel Temple by 2.3
- Projected closeness 28/35
- Team quality 7/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
41score - 34Time TBDGerald J. Ford Stadiummodel SMU by 12.1
- Projected closeness 11/35
- Team quality 19/30
- Stakes 7/15
- Points on the board 4/10
41score - 35Time TBDKinnick Stadiummodel Iowa by 10.4
- Projected closeness 12/35
- Team quality 13/30
- Stakes 7/15
- History 5/10
- Points on the board 4/10
41score - 36Tue, Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ETDoyt L. Perry Stadiummodel Kent State by 1.3
- Projected closeness 31/35
- Team quality 2/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 3/10
- Points on the board 2/10
41score - 37Time TBDScheumann Stadiummodel Ball State by 1.4
- Projected closeness 30/35
- Team quality 3/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 2/10
39score - 38Time TBDMemorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)model Clemson by 12.7
- Projected closeness 10/35
- Team quality 18/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 4/10
- Points on the board 4/10
39score - 39Sat, Nov 14 · 9:30 PM ETSnapdragon Stadiummodel San Diego State by 6.3
- Projected closeness 19/35
- Team quality 11/30
- Stakes 3/15
- History 1/10
- Points on the board 4/10
38score - 40Time TBDSHI Stadiummodel Nebraska by 6.5
- Projected closeness 18/35
- Team quality 13/30
- Stakes 3/15
- Points on the board 4/10
38score
How the score is built
- Projected closeness — 35 points
- Decays exponentially in the model’s projected margin: a pick’em is the full 35, a touchdown favorite about half, three scores nothing. The largest term, because a blowout is a blowout no matter who is playing.
- Team quality — 30 points
- Elo percentile of both sides, with two thirds of the weight on the weaker team. A top-five side hosting a bad one is not a good game, and an average of the two would claim it was.
- Stakes — 15 points
- Poll position going into the week, plus a share for a conference game. Two ranked teams take most of it; the higher the pair, the more.
- Rivalry history — 10 points
- From the all-time series: a named trophy game, the length of the series, and whether the all-time ledger has stayed close.
- Points on the board — 10 points
- The projected total, from the drive-sim. A 31-28 is better television than a 10-7 and that is allowed to matter a little — but only a little, or the whole list becomes bad defenses.
There is no term for brand, television window or network. A watchability score that rewards blue bloods for existing is a popularity ranking wearing a lab coat.