Missouri vs. Georgia Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Neither side projects a clear way in. Missouri and Georgia rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest at hitting chunk plays — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
Missouri
Missouri is in year 7 under Eli Drinkwitz, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 6th on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −33.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Missouri has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensefirst and second down#6projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#9projected
- Offenserunning it#12projected
Georgia
Georgia is in year 11 under Kirby Smart, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th on first and second down. The way in is 124th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −41.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Georgia has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensefirst and second down#4projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#6projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#6projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#124projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 1974, MIZ Elo 1703 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UGA -10 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MIZ38th5thUGAUGA2nd27thMIZThrough the air
MIZ22nd13thUGAUGA23rd38thMIZOn the ground
MIZ51st18thUGAUGA22nd39thMIZStaying on the field
MIZ35th80thUGAUGA13th16thMIZTaking care of it
MIZ68th14thUGAUGA68th30thMIZ
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 12–1 · Georgia has won 10 straight · 23% have been one-possession games
| MIZ | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.8 (#24) | CORE overall | +20.0 (#12) |
| +4 / -10 | offense / defense | +10 / -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Missouri vs. Georgia?
Gridpex's model favors Georgia with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Missouri vs. Georgia?
The model projects Georgia by 10.0.
What time is Missouri vs. Georgia and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Sanford Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →