UNLV vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where New Mexico gets at UNLV: 7th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 124th at stuffing runs at the line. UNLV projects no clear way in against New Mexico. New Mexico is also 32nd at running it, against a unit 134th.
How
UNMattacks
UNLV
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected · 1 game in
UNM5.3%#7 of 138UNLV12.5%#124 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected · 1 game in
UNM+0.47#32 of 138UNLV+0.22#134 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected · 1 game in
UNM4.89#39 of 138UNLV4.12#119 of 138
The two teams
UNLV
UNLV throws it: Dan Mullen's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The way in is 137th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 134th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −31.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UNLV has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets3.79#137 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.22#134 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points4.12#119 of 138
New Mexico
New Mexico is in year 2 under Jason Eck. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 7th at staying out of the backfield.
New Mexico has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 16% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line5.3%#7 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets1.39#19 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss9.0%#27 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1558, UNLV Elo 1485 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -1.4 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UNLV102nd8thUNMUNM72nd99thUNLVThrough the air
UNLV92nd6thUNMUNM111th89thUNLVOn the ground
UNLV63rd24thUNMUNM26th110thUNLVStaying on the field
UNLV100th10thUNMUNM53rd99thUNLVTaking care of it
UNLV118th1stUNMUNM31st53rdUNLV
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUNLV leads 15–13 · 46% have been one-possession games
| UNLV | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.3 (#68) | CORE overall | +7.4 (#41) |
| -3 / -4 | offense / defense | -2 / -9 |
| 1.83 | points / drive | 4.11 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 0.78 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UNLV vs. New Mexico?
Gridpex's model favors New Mexico with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UNLV vs. New Mexico?
The model projects New Mexico by 1.4.
What time is UNLV vs. New Mexico and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ET, at University Stadium (NM).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →