Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Florida gets at Kentucky: 29th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 89th at shutting down the ground game. Kentucky projects no clear way in against Florida. Florida is also 46th on first and second down, against a unit 93rd.
How
FLAattacks
UK
- 1
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
FLA#29 of 138UK#89 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
FLA#46 of 138UK#93 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
FLA#26 of 138UK#66 of 138
The two teams
Florida
Florida is in year 1 under Jon Sumrall, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 26th in the push up front. The way in is 126th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Florida has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#26projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#29projected
- Defenserunning it#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#126projected
Kentucky
Kentucky is in year 1 under Will Stein. The way in is 113th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 109th at keeping a clean pocket.
Kentucky has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#113projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#109projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Availability-adjusted projection
what the absences moveAvailability impact
Model estimate- Out Kahleil Jackson (WR)not quantified
No ruled-out starters
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1416, FLA Elo 1658 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK +6.9 (33% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FLA4th72ndUKUK84th50thFLAThrough the air
FLA11th84thUKUK75th120thFLAOn the ground
FLA15th66thUKUK90th80thFLAStaying on the field
FLA20th116thUKUK131st116thFLATaking care of it
FLA31st14thUKUK95th30thFLA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida leads 54–22 · 33% have been one-possession games
| FLA | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.6 (#17) | CORE overall | +5.1 (#51) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | -1 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida vs. Kentucky?
Gridpex's model favors Florida with a 67% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida vs. Kentucky?
The model projects Florida by 6.9.
What time is Florida vs. Kentucky and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Kroger Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →