UAB vs. Temple Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UAB gets at Temple: 7th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 76th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Temple gets at UAB: 57th on first and second down, against a unit 136th on early downs defensively. UAB is also 60th at throwing it, against a unit 121st.
How
UABattacks
TEM
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UAB#7 of 138TEM#76 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
UAB#60 of 138TEM#121 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
UAB#65 of 138TEM#125 of 138
HowTEMattacksUAB
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
TEM#57 of 138UAB#136 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
TEM#65 of 138UAB#135 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
TEM#68 of 138UAB#131 of 138
The two teams
UAB
UAB is in year 1 under Alex Mortensen. The strengths are offensive, led by 7th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th on early downs defensively, and they are 135th at holding teams to field goals.
UAB has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#7projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#136projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#135projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#135projected
Temple
Temple is in year 2 under K.C. Keeler. The way in is 132nd at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 130th at shutting down the ground game.
Temple has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#130projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#128projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEM Elo 1323, UAB Elo 1403 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEM -2.3 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UAB106th108thTEMTEM92nd94thUABThrough the air
UAB115th99thTEMTEM130th11thUABOn the ground
UAB26th76thTEMTEM41st113thUABStaying on the field
UAB12th116thTEMTEM127th54thUABTaking care of it
UAB74th46thTEMTEM47th109thUAB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UAB | TEM | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#92) | CORE overall | -3.5 (#82) |
| +0 / +5 | offense / defense | -3 / +0 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 1.25 |
| 3.00 | allowed / drive | 3.38 |
| 6% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -17 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win UAB vs. Temple?
Gridpex's model favors Temple with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UAB vs. Temple?
The model projects Temple by 2.3.
What time is UAB vs. Temple and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Lincoln Financial Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →