Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Southern Miss gets at Louisiana Tech: 9th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 115th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Louisiana Tech gets at Southern Miss: 54th at running it, against a unit 89th at defending the run.
How
USMattacks
LT
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
USM#9 of 138LT#115 of 138
HowLTattacksUSM
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
LT#54 of 138USM#89 of 138
The two teams
Southern Miss
Southern Miss is in year 1 under Blake Anderson, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Southern Miss has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#9projected
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana Tech is in year 5 under Sonny Cumbie, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 20th at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 115th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 106th at staying on schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana Tech has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#20projected
- Defenserunning it#31projected
- Defensefirst and second down#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#115projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#106projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LT Elo 1405, USM Elo 1285 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LT PK (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USM106th46thLTLT79th109thUSMThrough the air
USM96th77thLTLT79th62ndUSMOn the ground
USM55th72ndLTLT114th133rdUSMStaying on the field
USM73rd62ndLTLT73rd100thUSMTaking care of it
USM75th9thLTLT75th5thUSM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouthern Miss leads 20–13 · 39% have been one-possession games
| USM | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.5 (#127) | CORE overall | -3.2 (#81) |
| -9 / +8 | offense / defense | -14 / -11 |
| -0.18 | points / drive | 0.54 |
| 3.44 | allowed / drive | 2.47 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 62% |
| +14 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech?
Gridpex's model favors Louisiana Tech with a 51% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech?
The model projects Southern Miss by 0.0.
What time is Southern Miss vs. Louisiana Tech and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Joe Aillet Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →