Louisiana Tech vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LTTeam statsLSU
- Q4 1:48LSULanden Clark 7 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–45
- Q4 8:08LTJalen Mickens 67 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Kaegan Kent Kick)14–38
- Q4 9:39LSUTrey'Dez Green 10 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–38
- Q4 13:32LSUSam Leavitt 5 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–31
- Q3 2:12LSUScott Starzyk 23 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 4:32LSUSam Leavitt 9 Yd Run (Sam Leavitt Pass to Malachi Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)7–21
- Q3 10:12LSUScott Starzyk 25 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 1:53LTJordan McRae 100 Yd Interception Return (Kaegan Kent Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:46LSUSam Leavitt 5 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:36LSUScott Starzyk 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.5
Louisiana Tech held LSU to 23 in Baton Rouge a year ago and can still win early downs. Short yardage is where that resistance breaks.
LSU beat this same team 23-7 in Baton Rouge a year ago, and the board now asks for more than double that margin. Tech's front is why that's a stretch: it grades ahead of LSU's offense at winning first and second down, and ahead of it in the run game generally. LSU's answer is the widest edge on the field, a 1.39 advantage in short yardage and power, where a 15.6-point overall separation turns straight into points.
- PassBlake Baker 11/21, 128 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAndrew Burnette 6 CAR, 16 YDS
- RecJalen Mickens 6 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSam Leavitt 25/38, 344 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushDilin Jones 18 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecTrey'Dez Green 6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLSU up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana Tech vs. LSU?
Louisiana Tech 14, LSU 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.
| LT | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 140 | Total yards | 528 |
| 143 | Passing yards | 381 |
| -3 | Rushing yards | 147 |
| 8 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 14/24 | Comp/Att | 27/41 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| -0.1 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 10-101 |
| 25:51 | Possession | 34:09 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:12 LSU field goal on 4th & 4 at LT 5. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:48LSULanden Clark 7 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–45
- Q4 8:08LTJalen Mickens 67 Yd pass from Blake Baker (Kaegan Kent Kick)14–38
- Q4 9:39LSUTrey'Dez Green 10 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–38
- Q4 13:32LSUSam Leavitt 5 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)7–31
- Q3 2:12LSUScott Starzyk 23 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q3 4:32LSUSam Leavitt 9 Yd Run (Sam Leavitt Pass to Malachi Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)7–21
- Q3 10:12LSUScott Starzyk 25 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 1:53LTJordan McRae 100 Yd Interception Return (Kaegan Kent Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:46LSUSam Leavitt 5 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)0–10
- Q1 6:36LSUScott Starzyk 29 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LSU Elo 1745, LT Elo 1454 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LSU -23.7 (94% to win) — 11.3 points clear of LT's market line of -35. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLSU leads 17–1 · LSU has won 16 straight · 11% have been one-possession games
| LT | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.2 (#81) | CORE overall | +31.8 (#5) |
| -14 / -11 | offense / defense | +1 / -31 |
| 0.54 | points / drive | 3.15 |
| 2.47 | allowed / drive | 0.40 |
| 62% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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LSU's power game is Tech's one soft spot
Louisiana Tech held LSU to 23 in Baton Rouge a year ago and can still win early downs. Short yardage is where that resistance breaks.
Louisiana Tech wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward LSU, the more likely LSU wins.
Twenty-three points is what LSU got here last year
Twenty-three points against LSU is not a number you explain away. Louisiana Tech's defense is built to make drives expensive early, the down-and-distance work that decides whether an offense ever reaches a manageable third down. That profile is why the projection lands on 40 points for LSU rather than something closer to what a 33-point number implies.
None of that resistance is worth much once the sticks are two yards away. A defense can win first down all afternoon and still watch a possession survive on third-and-1, then fourth-and-1, then finish. Do that four times and 23 becomes 40 without the offense ever looking especially sharp.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward LSU are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
The 80-point game came with a 57 percent three-and-out rate
Louisiana Tech scored on 78.6% of its 14 drives against Northwestern State and went three-and-out on 57.1% of them. That is an offense that either finished in a hurry or left the field in three plays, and only one of those halves travels. Blake Baker projects for 83 to 173 passing yards against a pass defense ranked 4th of 185 by what it allows.
LSU's 51-10 win over Clemson reads as a different kind of week: 51.5 yards per drive, a three-and-out on 8.3% of 12 possessions. That is a sustained-drive profile, and it matches the edge Tech has to defend rather than contradicting it.
Tech's chunk plays have to come on the ground
Tech's offense does grade ahead of LSU's defense in overall big plays, the most encouraging fact the underdog owns. It is narrower than it looks. In explosive passing the edge flips hard to LSU, so the chunk gains have to come from somewhere other than throwing over the top. Trey Kukuk, projected for 31 to 88 rushing yards against a run defense ranked 30th of 185, is where that has to be found.
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward LSU are battles it should win; toward Louisiana Tech are ones Louisiana Tech wins.
LSU's points live inside the 20, not over the top
Trey'Dez Green carries a 60% touchdown chance and projects for 28 to 85 receiving yards against a pass defense ranked 15th of 185. Caden Durham (22 to 62 rushing yards) and Harlem Berry (20 to 56) both run into a front ranked 10th of 185. LSU's points are likelier to come from the red zone than from one snap.
Both offenses get squeezed into the same ten yards
That is what makes the short-yardage grade the whole game. Andrew Burnette, at 20 to 57 rushing yards, carries a 51% touchdown chance. The best scoring likelihood on Tech's side belongs to the back projected for the fewest yards, because Tech's scoring is likelier to be goal-line than gaudy. Both offenses are being pushed toward the same narrow strip of field, and one of them is far better equipped there.
Points allowed per drive across all FBS defenses (lower is better). Louisiana Tech's defense is below average, better than only 20% of FBS defenses.
Tech's cover Case is the ordinary one
The projection gives LSU only a 15% chance of covering 33, and the route there is one Tech has already driven in this building: win early downs, keep possessions long, land the favorite 17 points short of the number.
The other tail is live too. If Tech's offense produces the three-and-out half of its profile in the first quarter and LSU converts twice on short yardage early, the margin can reach three scores before Tech's defense has settled into the game it wants to play. A 20-plus margin projects at 44%.
LSU needs third-and-1; Tech needs third-and-7
LSU's job has a shape: stay on schedule so the down-and-distance stays inside where its power applies, then take the conversions Tech's front can't deny. Tech's is to make LSU play third-and-6 instead of third-and-1, and to keep Baker's drives alive past three plays. The under sits at 16%. The question is whether the points come from one side or two.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →