Louisiana vs. Southern Miss Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Southern Miss gets at Louisiana: 43rd at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 113th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Louisiana projects no clear way in against Southern Miss. Southern Miss is also 77th in the push up front, against a unit 128th.
How
USMattacks
UL
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
USM#43 of 138UL#113 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
USM#77 of 138UL#128 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
USM#78 of 138UL#127 of 138
The two teams
Louisiana
Louisiana is in year 6 under Michael Desormeaux, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 30th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 128th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 127th on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#30projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#128projected
- Defensefirst and second down#127projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#122projected
Southern Miss
Southern Miss is in year 1 under Blake Anderson, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Southern Miss has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#9projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1285, UL Elo 1387 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM -8.6 (70% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UL33rd109thUSMUSM106th77thULThrough the air
UL75th62ndUSMUSM96th71stULOn the ground
UL45th133rdUSMUSM55th89thULStaying on the field
UL104th100thUSMUSM73rd138thULTaking care of it
UL75th5thUSMUSM75th9thUL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouthern Miss leads 24–5 · 31% have been one-possession games
| UL | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.5 (#54) | CORE overall | -16.5 (#127) |
| +5 / +1 | offense / defense | -9 / +8 |
| 2.40 | points / drive | -0.18 |
| 4.67 | allowed / drive | 3.44 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -14 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Louisiana vs. Southern Miss?
Gridpex's model favors Southern Miss with a 70% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisiana vs. Southern Miss?
The model projects Southern Miss by 8.6.
What time is Louisiana vs. Southern Miss and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at M. M. Roberts Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →