UAB vs. Louisiana Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 9.7 toward 
UAB
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  UL −10 | UL −0.3 |
| UL win | 76% | 51% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where UAB gets at Louisiana: 51st at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 113th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Louisiana gets at UAB: 78th at running it, against a unit 132nd at defending the run. UAB is also 73rd in the push up front, against a unit 128th.
HowUABattacksUL
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
UAB#51 of 138UL#113 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
UAB#73 of 138UL#128 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
UAB#65 of 138UL#109 of 138
HowULattacksUAB
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
UL#78 of 138UAB#132 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
UL#85 of 138UAB#135 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
UL#81 of 138UAB#127 of 138
The two teams
UAB
UAB is in year 1 under Alex Mortensen. The strengths are offensive, led by 7th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 136th on early downs defensively, and they are 135th at holding teams to field goals.
UAB has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#7projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#136projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#135projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#135projected
Louisiana
Louisiana is in year 6 under Michael Desormeaux, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 30th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 128th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 127th on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#30projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#128projected
- Defensefirst and second down#127projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#122projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UL Elo 1387, UAB Elo 1403 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UL -0.3 (51% to win) — 9.7 points clear of UAB's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UAB106th77thULUL33rd94thUABThrough the air
UAB115th70thULUL75th11thUABOn the ground
UAB26th88thULUL46th113thUABStaying on the field
UAB12th138thULUL104th54thUABTaking care of it
UAB74th9thULUL74th109thUAB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 4–4 · Louisiana has won 3 straight · 13% have been one-possession games
| UAB | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#92) | CORE overall | +4.5 (#54) |
| +0 / +5 | offense / defense | +5 / +1 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.40 |
| 3.00 | allowed / drive | 4.67 |
| 6% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| -17 | pass over expected | -14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UAB vs. Louisiana?
Gridpex's model favors Louisiana with a 51% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UAB vs. Louisiana?
The model projects Louisiana by 0.3.
What time is UAB vs. Louisiana and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET, at Cajun Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →