Lamar vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LAMATeam statsUL
- Q4 2:58ULTony Sterner 31 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q4 11:48LAMAD. Beale pass intercepted, for a TD, L. Kelley return for 40 yds (A. Sandoval KICK)7–35
- Q3 0:00ULS. Blanco run for 1 yd, for a TD (T. Sterner KICK)0–35
- Q2 0:31ULL. Winfield run for 22 yds, for a TD (T. Sterner KICK)0–28
- Q2 9:09ULA. Reagan Jr. run for 11 yds, for a TD (T. Sterner KICK)0–21
- Q2 13:23ULDarrell Smith 25 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:15ULDarrell Smith 2 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Louisiana was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
There was no drama to speak of. Louisiana dismantles Lamar, 38-7 at Cajun Field. Louisiana led from start to finish and never let Lamar within striking distance. Darrell Smith ran 10 times for 84 yards and two scores.
- PassAiden McCown 15/26, 126 YDS, 3 INT
- RushJojo Uga 8 CAR, 24 YDS
- RecKyndon Fuselier 3 REC, 35 YDS
- PassLunch Winfield 16/22, 189 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDarrell Smith 10 CAR, 84 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCaden Jensen 5 REC, 77 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Lamar vs. Louisiana?
Lamar 7, Louisiana 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UL) was correct.
| LAMA | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 205 | Total yards | 474 |
| 149 | Passing yards | 231 |
| 56 | Rushing yards | 243 |
| 16 | First downs | 26 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 3-8 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/31 | Comp/Att | 20/28 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-30 | Penalties | 6-48 |
| 26:22 | Possession | 33:38 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:56 LAMA punt on 4th & 3 at UL 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.96 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:58ULTony Sterner 31 Yd Field Goal 7–38
- Q4 11:48LAMAD. Beale pass intercepted, for a TD, L. Kelley return for 40 yds (A. Sandoval KICK)7–35
- Q3 0:00ULS. Blanco run for 1 yd, for a TD (T. Sterner KICK)0–35
- Q2 0:31ULL. Winfield run for 22 yds, for a TD (T. Sterner KICK)0–28
- Q2 9:09ULA. Reagan Jr. run for 11 yds, for a TD (T. Sterner KICK)0–21
- Q2 13:23ULDarrell Smith 25 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:15ULDarrell Smith 2 Yd Run (Tony Sterner Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects UL -29.2 (96% to win) — 8.7 points clear of UL's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
D'Wayne' Winfield produced eight of Louisiana's eleven explosive plays
Louisiana was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
The big plays only went one way
Louisiana produced 11 plays of 15+ yards to Lamar's 2, chiefly D'Wayne' Winfield (involved in 8), Caden Jensen (involved in 3) and Darrell Smith (involved in 2). Louisiana scored on 58% of its drives to Lamar's 0%: D'Wayne' Winfield (6 pts), Darrell Smith (12 pts) and Anthony Reagan Jr. (6 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
The difference-makers
D'Wayne' Winfield threw for 189 yards on 21 attempts and ran eight times for 84 yards and one score, with two third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Darrell Smith ran 10 times for 84 yards and two scores, with that score from inside the 20. Caden Jensen caught five passes for 77 yards — a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. For Lamar, Malachi Casey caught three passes for 26 yards, including three third-down conversions. Kyndon Fuselier caught three passes for 35 yards. Aiden McCown threw for 126 yards on 26 attempts and ran four times for 11 yards, including four third-down conversions. Brent Gordon Jr. was the disruptive one for Louisiana: 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBUs, 5 tackles.
What Lamar has to fix
The problems had names: Aiden McCown (3 interceptions) and Parker Jenkins (1 lost fumble).
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep, all for Louisiana: Brent Gordon Jr. (0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 2 PBUs, 5 tackles) and J.St. Andre (1 TFL, 1 INT, 4 tackles). 1 of Louisiana's 3 sacks came from the defensive line, which is how this defense has generated pressure since 2016.
How we got here
Louisiana struck first through Darrell Smith, led 28-0 at the half and Louisiana got the final points on a late field goal by Tony Sterner.
How it graded
The closing line had Louisiana -20.5. Louisiana covered. The total was 48.5; the teams combined for 45, an under. Darrell Smith accounted for 12 of Louisiana's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Louisiana cleared the bar with room to spare; Lamar goes back to the drawing board.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →