Louisiana vs. USC: Live Score, Odds & Spread

Louisiana

USC

Q2 5:291st & 15at UL 44

TV BTNLos Angeles Memorial ColiseumClear · 74°F

	1	2	T
UL	3	7	10
USC	7	7	14

2020

USC

UL1st & 15at UL 44·line to gainUSC

USC 5 plays, 10 yds · from USC 35

UL gets the ball to start the 2nd half

Last play(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 2 yards gain to the USC36 (#21 M.Eleam)

ULTeam statsUSC

93Total yards227

60Pass120

33Rush107

4First downs11

0-23rd down5-7

0Turnovers1

7:09Possession16:45

Q2 9:21ULS. Blanco run for 1 yd, for a TD (T. Sterner KICK)10–14
Q2 12:31USCJ. Maiava pass to M. Bowman for 9 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)3–14
Q1 4:57USCJ. Maiava pass to M. Bowman for 5 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden KICK)3–7
Q1 11:23ULT. Sterner 47 yd FG GOOD3–0

Our model, right now

Win probability

USC 97%

market USC 94%

Line, re-priced

USC −22.9

market USC −31

Projected final

UL 18 – 41 USC

28.5s / play

Covers the number

UL 74%

vs USC −31

What the numbers say

UL is winning this through the air — that lane, not the scoreboard, is the story against USC. +1.51 vs +0.55 EPA/play
UL is starting drives roughly 14 yards closer than USC — a scoreboard edge that never shows up as a stat line. own 37 vs own 23

Where this stands

updating

Third‑down efficiency
USC is staying on schedule on 55% of its plays while Louisiana hasn’t converted a single third down, forcing UL into longer, tougher situations.
Offensive leaders
Jayden Maiava’s 10‑pass day and Mark Bowman’s 67 receiving yards have driven USC’s offense, whereas Louisiana’s top passer has only 15 yards total.
Time of possession
USC controls the ball with over 13 minutes and 181 yards while Louisiana has barely 4 minutes and just 18 yards, reflecting the lopsided drive balance.
Pre‑game expectations
Even as a 31‑point favorite with a 99% live win chance, USC leads by only 11 points, showing the game is tighter than the odds suggest.

Live · model vs market

97%

situation-adjusted

Exchange

93%

last traded

CFBD

68%

their model

Gap vs market

+4.5

points, toward USC

History75%±7pts· USC won 122 of 162 comparable games

Matched within 2 min, 3 pts of the same margin, 20 yds of the same field position, on 1st. Counted once per game, never per play. It knows the situation but not the teams — no spread, no ratings — so it complements the numbers above rather than judging them.

Widest spread of opinion here is 29 points, and the outlier is CFBD.

line 97%this snap +0.597%· +2.5 expected points from this spot

We are 4.5 points higher on USC than the market. That is a disagreement, not an edge. This gap is measured after pricing the current snap, so it is not simply field position we ignored — but we still don't see timeouts, personnel or injuries, and our expected-points bridge runs a little hot for good field position late.

How the line movedDraftKings · 34 readings · Sep 5–Sep 12

DraftKings's posted spread on USC, at every moment we recorded it. USC went from −28.5 to −30.5 — 2.0 points toward USC.

−28.5−30−31.5

Sep 5Sep 7Sep 10Sep 12

y: DraftKings spread on USC, pointsx: date recorded

DraftKingsclosed −30.5

USC favored ↑50%UL favored ↓

GridpexUSC 97%CFBD USC 68%

Pregame line

USC −31

Pregame total

58.5

Model live line

USC −22.9

Projected total

Covers the pregame spread (USC −31)UL 74% · USC 26%

Total goes over 58.5Under 50% · Over 50%

DraftKings, liveUSC −30.50.5 toward ULtotal 58.5

Our model prices this game live at USC −22.9 (97% USC).
Against the pregame line (USC −31), UL covers in 74% of finishes from this state.
Scoring pace projects a final total of 59 vs the 58.5 line — the over hits 50%.

Cover and over probabilities are our live model measured against the pregame consensus. Not betting advice.

1&10(05:31) PENALTY USC False Start (#68 H.Treter) 5 yards from UL39 to UL44. NO PLAY
3&3(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 10 yards gain to the UL39 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.), 1ST DOWN+1.82
2&18(06:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush left for 15 yards gain to the UL49 (#35 C.Jacob)+1.84
1&20(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 W.Jordan rush right for 2 yards gain to the USC36 (#21 M.Eleam)−0.32
1&10(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short left to #84 T.Ashcraft thrown to UL45 PENALTY USC Holding (#77 A.Noa) 10 yards from USC44 to USC34. NO PLAY
4&4(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 K.Miller rush left for 13 yards gain to the USC44 (#24 L.Bates), 1ST DOWN+2.68
3&16(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short left to #4 T.Mosley caught at USC31, for 12 yards to the USC31 (#35 C.Jacob)+0.26
2&16(08:43) Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass incomplete short right to #8 K.Miller thrown to USC15−0.13

Louisiana

PassLunch Winfield 4/4, 60 YDS
RushJJ Garner 2 CAR, 22 YDS
RecBrock Chappell 1 REC, 37 YDS

USC

PassJayden Maiava 11/16, 120 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
RushKing Miller 9 CAR, 47 YDS
RecMark Bowman 5 REC, 67 YDS, 2 TD

28.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

Snaps left

Drives left

6 ea.

Projected finalUL 18 – 41 USC

67%

won from here

Teams up 4 with 35 minutes left — like USC right now — went on to win 67% of the time across 1615 comparable historical situations.

Nebraska vs Northern IllinoisW 35–11
South Dakota State vs MontanaW 23–3
Air Force vs NevadaW 22–19
Sacramento State vs Northern ColoradoW 21–13
Stetson vs DrakeL 7–20

FAQ

Who will win Louisiana vs. USC?

Gridpex's model favors USC with a 99% win probability.

What's the predicted spread for Louisiana vs. USC?

The model projects USC by 30.9.

What time is Louisiana vs. USC and what channel is it on?

Sat, Sep 12, 11:00 PM ET on BTN, at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

USC

0.47

EPA / play

0.38

1.51

EPA / pass

0.55

-0.09

EPA / rush

0.18

47%

Success rate

52%

0.81

Explosiveness

0.64

5.0

Pts / scoring opp

2.8

Scoring opps

Avg start (own yd)

Momentum — net EPA by quarter

Q1: USC +12.0Q2: UL +4.7Last 10: UL +0.3

USC

46%

Early-down success

50%

Pass success

59%

33%

Rush success

50%

15%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

22%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

31%

Pass rate

46%

8.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.0

8.0 yards to go on 3rd down

13 scrimmage snaps

USC

7.0 yards to go on 3rd down

37 scrimmage snaps

UL		USC
93	Total yards	227
60	Passing yards	120
33	Rushing yards	107
4	First downs	11
0-2	3rd down	5-7
0-0	4th down	1-1
4/4	Comp/Att	11/16
15.0	Yards per pass	7.5
3.7	Yards per rush	5.6
0	Turnovers	1
1-15	Penalties	4-40
7:09	Possession	16:45

Live prediction-market data for this game, straight from the exchange's public feed. The distribution is every final margin the market will price and how likely it thinks each one is; the order book is the money actually resting behind today's price; the tape is what has really traded; and price history is how the number got where it is. Our live in-game model is drawn on the same axes — not the pregame projection, which the scoreboard has already overtaken.

What the tape says

The larger orders lean USC.

99% of the dollars and 75% of the trades took USC, across 1,920 prints.

The largest single order was $6,473 against a typical trade of $9.98 — so the size here is spread across many.

Since those orders landed the price has moved 1.0¢ toward the side they took, over 43 later prints. An association on one market, not evidence the money was informed.

Live · model vs market

97%

situation-adjusted

Exchange

93%

last traded

CFBD

68%

their model

Gap vs market

+4.5

points, toward USC

History75%±7pts· USC won 122 of 162 comparable games

Widest spread of opinion here is 29 points, and the outlier is CFBD.

line 97%this snap +0.597%· +2.5 expected points from this spot

Every final score the market is pricing

87% of outcomes priced

A spread is one number; this is the whole picture behind it. Each bar is a possible final margin and how likely the exchange thinks it is, with our model's curve over the same buckets — so where the two disagree is visible rather than asserted.

Taller = the market thinks it more likely

LouisianawinwinUSC

market our modelmarket 22.6 pts · model 23.4 pts

Final margin in points — positive means USC win by that much, negative Louisiana. The dashed line is where the market's middle sits, the solid one ours.

Price history

92 hours · 409.3k contracts traded

What the exchange has been charging for “USC wins”, hour by hour. The shaded band is the gap between what buyers and sellers were asking; the dashed line is our model, held flat because the rating only moves when it is rebuilt. If the market drifts toward the dashed line, it came to us.

exchange all venuesopened 97% → now 94%▼ 3.0 pts

Order book

2¢ between the two sides

USC to win· cents on the dollar

Unfilled offers on this market — a 60¢ contract pays $1 if they win. The left column is money waiting to buy, the right money waiting to sell; the gap between the two top rows is how far apart buyers and sellers are, and a narrow gap on deep size is a price to take seriously.

BuyingSelling

92¢229

91¢1.4k

90¢30

89¢236

88¢501

87¢51

86¢348

85¢477

94¢392

95¢260

96¢535

97¢2.5k

98¢6.7k

99¢8.3k

6.2k contracts resting to buy18.7k to sell

Trade tape

last 14 trades

Every recent trade: the time, the price paid, and how many contracts. Green means the buyer was the one who moved to get filled, red the seller — a run of one colour is one side pushing the price.

12:05 AM94¢×14seller

12:05 AM94¢×5seller

12:05 AM94¢×3seller

12:05 AM92¢×0seller

12:05 AM95¢×11buyer

12:05 AM95¢×10buyer

12:05 AM95¢×3.5kbuyer

12:05 AM95¢×518buyer

12:05 AM95¢×168buyer

12:05 AM95¢×9buyer

12:05 AM94¢×71buyer

12:05 AM95¢×49buyer

12:05 AM95¢×5buyer

12:05 AM95¢×390buyer

How many points, in total

90% of outcomes priced

The same picture for the combined score — every total the exchange is pricing and how likely it thinks each one is.

Taller = the market thinks it more likely

market our projectionmarket 61.5 pts · model — pts

Combined points scored by both teams. The dashed line is where the market's middle sits, the solid one ours.

Halves & overtime

1 of 4 quoting

1st half winner95% USC · 4% Louisiana · 1% tie3¢ · 32.8k

1st half spreadnot quoting59¢ · 311.3k

1st half totalnot quoting32¢ · 75.3k

Goes to overtimenot quoting14¢ · 33

Width in cents, then contracts traded. A market quoting too wide to be a price reads not quoting rather than showing a number — an untouched market still produces one, and it is an artefact rather than a price. Normal before kickoff; the thing to watch once a game is under way. A half can end level, so the tie is priced as a real outcome.

Exchange data is public market information; prices only. Gridpex does not accept, place, or route wagers. Our projection is shown for comparison and is not a recommendation — see the desk for when we consider a gap credible, and methodology for how the projection is built.

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

USC 1835

UL 1389

Projected spread

USC -30.9

incl. home edge

Model pick

USC

99% to win

Market spread

USC -31

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

99%

USC · market 94%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1835, UL Elo 1389 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -30.9 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2026

nationally ranked

UL2026 season · national rank shownUSC

474.038th

Total yards / game

528.517th

7.037th

Yards / play

7.326th

231.067th

Passing yards / game

376.54th

243.028th

Rushing yards / game

152.074th

37.5%94th

3rd down %

66.7%6th

205.022nd

Yards allowed / game

226.034th

53.8%127th

3rd down % allowed

33.3%60th

+136th

Turnover margin

-189th

6.052nd

Penalties / game

5.038th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2026

UL		USC
-6.3 (#94)	CORE overall	+32.7 (#2)
-1 / +5	offense / defense	+22 / -11

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Live thread

Our coverage of this game

Preview: Louisiana can throw on USC, but not push →

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Louisiana vs. USC: Live Score & Win Probability

ULTeam statsUSC

Our model, right now

What the numbers say

Live · model vs market

Who will win Louisiana vs. USC?

What's the predicted spread for Louisiana vs. USC?

What time is Louisiana vs. USC and what channel is it on?

Live · model vs market

Every final score the market is pricing

Price history

Order book

Trade tape

How many points, in total

Halves & overtime

Key matchups

Live · model vs market

Live · model vs market

Every final score the market is pricing

Price history

Order book

Trade tape

How many points, in total

Halves & overtime