Louisiana vs. Georgia State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Louisiana gets at Georgia State: 81st at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 130th at generating havoc. Where Georgia State gets at Louisiana: 90th in the push up front, against a unit 128th at holding the line of scrimmage. Louisiana is also 78th at running it, against a unit 118th.
How
ULattacks
GAST
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
UL#81 of 138GAST#130 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
UL#78 of 138GAST#118 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UL#91 of 138GAST#129 of 138
HowGASTattacksUL
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
GAST#90 of 138UL#128 of 138
The two teams
Louisiana
Louisiana is in year 6 under Michael Desormeaux, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 30th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 128th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 127th on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Louisiana has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#30projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#128projected
- Defensefirst and second down#127projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#122projected
Georgia State
Georgia State is in year 2 under Dell McGee. The way in is 131st at defending the pass, and they are 130th at closing out passing downs.
Georgia State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#130projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#130projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1287, UL Elo 1387 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST +4.4 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UL33rd64thGASTGAST21st77thULThrough the air
UL75th61stGASTGAST44th71stULOn the ground
UL45th26thGASTGAST13th89thULStaying on the field
UL104th26thGASTGAST26th138thULTaking care of it
UL75th108thGASTGAST48th9thUL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UL | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | points / drive | 3.00 |
| 4.67 | allowed / drive | 1.70 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -14 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Louisiana vs. Georgia State?
Gridpex's model favors Louisiana with a 61% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Louisiana vs. Georgia State?
The model projects Louisiana by 4.4.
What time is Louisiana vs. Georgia State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Center Parc Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →