Oklahoma State vs. Houston Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Houston gets at Oklahoma State: 18th at throwing it, against a unit 134th at defending the pass. Oklahoma State projects no clear way in against Houston. Houston is also 16th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 121st.
How
HOUattacks
OKST
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected · 1 game in
HOU+0.61#18 of 138OKST+0.31#134 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected · 1 game in
HOU56%#16 of 138OKST17%#121 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected · 1 game in
HOU55%#29 of 138OKST48%#131 of 138
The two teams
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State throws it: Eric Morris's offenses have been pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The way in is 138th at running it, and they are 137th at throwing it.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+15.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is +8.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Oklahoma State has played 3 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offenserunning it+0.06#138 of 138
- Offensethrowing it+0.02#137 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points2.57#137 of 138
Houston
Houston runs it: Willie Fritz's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 16th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −14.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 20% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve56%#16 of 138
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air54%#17 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets1.70#18 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1514, OKST Elo 1274 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -19.3 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OKST104th49thHOUHOU8th92ndOKSTThrough the air
OKST35th115thHOUHOU55th70thOKSTOn the ground
OKST58th1stHOUHOU7th64thOKSTStaying on the field
OKST124th7thHOUHOU1st18thOKSTTaking care of it
OKST133rd46thHOUHOU47th76thOKST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesHouston leads 11–10–1 · 50% have been one-possession games
| OKST | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.3 (#104) | CORE overall | +9.4 (#38) |
| -11 / -2 | offense / defense | +6 / -4 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 3.09 |
| 2.00 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Oklahoma State vs. Houston?
Gridpex's model favors Houston with a 90% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oklahoma State vs. Houston?
The model projects Houston by 19.3.
What time is Oklahoma State vs. Houston and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at TDECU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →