Southern vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SOUTTeam statsHOU
- Q4 5:56HOULuke Carney 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)6–77
- Q3 4:38SOUTWydell Clark Jr. 79 Yd pass from Wyatt McCauley (Christopher McKenna PAT blocked)6–70
- Q3 4:57HOUJohn Hebert 7 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–70
- Q3 9:39HOUDJ Butler 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–63
- Q3 13:43HOUKeisean Henderson 54 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–56
- Q2 1:36HOUJohn Hebert 20 Yd pass from Keisean Henderson (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–49
- Q2 6:10HOUKoby Young 7 Yd pass from Keisean Henderson (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–42
- Q2 10:57HOUKoby Young 43 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–35
- Q1 0:28HOUAmare Thomas 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–28
- Q1 4:11HOUMakhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:52HOURe'Shaun Sanford II 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:59HOUPatrick Overmyer 9 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = SOUT ahead, below = HOU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassWyatt McCauley 2/3, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- RushArmariyan Asberry 3 CAR, 6 YDS
- RecWydell Clark Jr. 1 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassConner Weigman 9/12, 120 YDS, 3 TD
- RushZane Smith 10 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecKoby Young 3 REC, 54 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern vs. Houston?
Southern 6, Houston 77.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.
| SOUT | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 121 | Total yards | 591 |
| 127 | Passing yards | 203 |
| -6 | Rushing yards | 388 |
| 4 | First downs | 34 |
| 1-13 | 3rd down | 8-8 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 10/20 | Comp/Att | 15/19 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 10.7 |
| -0.3 | Yards per rush | 8.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-44 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 21:42 | Possession | 38:18 |
- Q4 5:56HOULuke Carney 8 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)6–77
- Q3 4:38SOUTWydell Clark Jr. 79 Yd pass from Wyatt McCauley (Christopher McKenna PAT blocked)6–70
- Q3 4:57HOUJohn Hebert 7 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–70
- Q3 9:39HOUDJ Butler 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–63
- Q3 13:43HOUKeisean Henderson 54 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–56
- Q2 1:36HOUJohn Hebert 20 Yd pass from Keisean Henderson (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–49
- Q2 6:10HOUKoby Young 7 Yd pass from Keisean Henderson (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–42
- Q2 10:57HOUKoby Young 43 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–35
- Q1 0:28HOUAmare Thomas 8 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–28
- Q1 4:11HOUMakhi Hughes 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:52HOURe'Shaun Sanford II 9 Yd Run (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:59HOUPatrick Overmyer 9 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Jonathan Dimas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -47.4 (100% to win) — 4.6 points clear of SOUT's market line of -52. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →