Houston vs. Colorado Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Houston gets at Colorado: 24th at throwing it, against a unit 117th at defending the pass. Colorado projects no clear way in against Houston. Houston is also 37th on first and second down, against a unit 103rd.
How
HOUattacks
COLO
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected
HOU#24 of 138COLO#117 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
HOU#37 of 138COLO#103 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
HOU#41 of 138COLO#105 of 138
The two teams
Houston
Houston runs it: Willie Fritz's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 10th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 105th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −14.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Houston has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#10projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#21projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#31projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#105projected
Colorado
Colorado throws it: Deion Sanders's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 132nd on first and second down, and they are 128th at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#132projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#128projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#126projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1406, HOU Elo 1514 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects COLO +12 (23% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
HOU8th59thCOLOCOLO73rd49thHOUThrough the air
HOU55th104thCOLOCOLO50th115thHOUOn the ground
HOU7th39thCOLOCOLO61st1stHOUStaying on the field
HOU1st107thCOLOCOLO63rd7thHOUTaking care of it
HOU47th46thCOLOCOLO47th46thHOU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| HOU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.4 (#38) | CORE overall | -7.1 (#100) |
| +6 / -4 | offense / defense | -7 / +1 |
| 3.09 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 0.67 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Houston vs. Colorado?
Gridpex's model favors Houston with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Houston vs. Colorado?
The model projects Houston by 12.0.
What time is Houston vs. Colorado and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 13, 10:15 PM ET, at Folsom Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →