Kansas State vs. Colorado Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Kansas State gets at Colorado: 11th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 103rd at keeping everything in front of them. Where Colorado gets at Kansas State: 4th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 122nd at keeping everything in front of them. Kansas State is also 47th at throwing it, against a unit 117th.
How
KSUattacks
COLO
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
KSU#11 of 138COLO#103 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
KSU#47 of 138COLO#117 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
KSU#42 of 138COLO#105 of 138
HowCOLOattacksKSU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
COLO#4 of 138KSU#122 of 138
The two teams
Kansas State
Kansas State is in year 1 under Collin Klein. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 11th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 122nd at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 119th at staying out of the backfield.
Kansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#11projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#33projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#122projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#119projected
Colorado
Colorado throws it: Deion Sanders's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 132nd on first and second down, and they are 128th at moving the ball on the ground.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#132projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#128projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#126projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1406, KSU Elo 1684 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects COLO +6 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
KSU24th59thCOLOCOLO73rd2ndKSUThrough the air
KSU79th105thCOLOCOLO50th1stKSUOn the ground
KSU8th41stCOLOCOLO60th50thKSUStaying on the field
KSU2nd106thCOLOCOLO63rd12thKSUTaking care of it
KSU75th46thCOLOCOLO48th76thKSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado leads 45–22–1 · Kansas State has won 2 straight · 28% have been one-possession games
| KSU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.40 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 0.00 | allowed / drive | 0.67 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Kansas State vs. Colorado?
Gridpex's model favors Kansas State with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kansas State vs. Colorado?
The model projects Kansas State by 6.0.
What time is Kansas State vs. Colorado and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Folsom Field.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →