Colorado vs. Georgia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
COLOTeam statsGT
- Q4 0:37COLOCharlie Williams 20 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Daniel Gerlach Kick)14–13
- Q4 1:40GTAidan Birr 29 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 2:03GTAidan Birr 22 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 12:52GTRahkeem Smith 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Aidan Birr Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:06COLOMicah Welch 5 Yd Run (Daniel Gerlach Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
Colorado walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
The favorite had other plans — Georgia Tech just didn't get the memo. Colorado knocks off Georgia Tech, 14-13 at Bobby Dodd Stadium. It stayed within one score late, and Colorado made the plays down the stretch. Charlie Williams caught two passes for 28 yards, one of them for a touchdown.
- PassJulian Lewis 14/27, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDamian Henderson II 11 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecDeAndre Moore Jr. 4 REC, 37 YDS
- PassAlberto Mendoza 17/23, 237 YDS
- RushJustice Haynes 19 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecJordan Allen 8 REC, 113 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGT up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:37COLO +93%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Lewis pass complete short left to #87 C.Williams caught at GT 20, for 20 yards to the GT 00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 0:03GT +85%
#33 A.Birr field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD blocked by #6 B.Carter, out of bounds at CU 24
- Q4 1:40GT +37%
#33 A.Birr field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD
- Q4 0:37COLO +26%
Shotgun #15 A.Mendoza pass complete deep middle to #7 D.Penson caught at GT 45, for 42 yards to the CU 33 (#20 C.Thomas), 1ST DOWN
- Q2 12:52GT +20%
PENALTY GT False Start (#10 J.Walker) 5 yards from CU 03 to CU 08. NO PLAY
- Q1 11:29COLO +15%
#35 D.Greaves punt 21 yards to the GT 40, out of bounds at GT 40
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado vs. Georgia Tech?
Colorado 14, Georgia Tech 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| COLO | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 307 | Total yards | 288 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 237 |
| 183 | Rushing yards | 51 |
| 21 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 14/27 | Comp/Att | 17/24 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-60 | Penalties | 9-49 |
| 34:09 | Possession | 25:51 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:38 COLO punt on 4th & 5 at GT 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:37COLOCharlie Williams 20 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Daniel Gerlach Kick)14–13
- Q4 1:40GTAidan Birr 29 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 2:03GTAidan Birr 22 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 12:52GTRahkeem Smith 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Aidan Birr Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:06COLOMicah Welch 5 Yd Run (Daniel Gerlach Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GT Elo 1563, COLO Elo 1396 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GT -2.1 (55% to win) — 4.4 points clear of COLO's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 21 in 2026 by biggest miss · #10 of 21 in 2026 by longest odds.
The 2026 upset archive →| COLO | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.1 (#100) | CORE overall | +0.9 (#65) |
| -7 / +1 | offense / defense | -0 / -1 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 0.84 |
| 0.67 | allowed / drive | 3.10 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -13 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Jordan Allen produced four of Georgia Tech's eight explosive plays
Colorado walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
We had this one the other way
Before kickoff we made Georgia Tech the pick by about 1. The model missed the side: it favored Georgia Tech by ~1, but Colorado won by 1 as the underdog.
Colorado lived in the backfield
Colorado sacked Georgia Tech's quarterback 3 times to Georgia Tech's 1, led by Lamont Lester Jr. (3 sacks). That's what carried Colorado.
The plays that turned it
Three snaps account for most of the difference. Dekalon Taylor's 2-yard run that came up short on 4th-and-3 at Q1 01:34. Then Julian Lewis's 16-yard throw to Joseph Williams on 3rd-and-11 at Q4 01:09. Later, Alberto Mendoza's 42-yard throw to Dalen Penson on 1st-and-10 at Q4 00:37.
The standouts
Charlie Williams caught two passes for 28 yards, one of them for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. Micah Welch ran 13 times for 58 yards and one score, with that score from inside the 20. Julian Lewis threw for 124 yards on 27 attempts with one touchdown and lost 12 yards on four carries, including that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. For Georgia Tech, Alberto Mendoza threw for 237 yards on 23 attempts and lost 22 yards on three carries, including four third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Jordan Allen caught eight passes for 113 yards, including two third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Dalen Penson caught three passes for 73 yards. Lamont Lester Jr. was the disruptive one for Colorado: 3 sacks, 3.5 TFLs, 4.5 tackles.
How it unfolded
Colorado struck first through Micah Welch, Georgia Tech led 10-7 at the half and the final points came on a late touchdown by Julian Lewis.
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep: Lamont Lester Jr. (3 sacks, 3.5 TFLs, 4.5 tackles) for Colorado and Tawfiq Thomas (1 sack, 1 TFL, 5 tackles) for Georgia Tech. 3 of Colorado's 3 sacks came from the defensive line — a change from the 44% it had averaged over the previous 7 seasons.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A program win for Colorado; a gut-check loss Georgia Tech won't soon forget. Aidan Birr was responsible for 6 of Georgia Tech's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →