Weber State vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WEBETeam statsCOLO
- Q4 7:42WEBENoah Kjar 12 Yd pass from Nate Dahle (David Dellenbach Kick)21–52
- Q4 11:35COLOKaneal Sweetwyne 9 Yd Run (Elliot Arnold Kick)14–52
- Q3 8:09COLOElliot Arnold 52 Yd Field Goal 14–45
- Q2 0:51COLOJulian Lewis 3 Yd Run (Elliot Arnold Kick)14–42
- Q2 7:38COLOJoseph Williams 32 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Elliot Arnold Kick)14–35
- Q2 12:11WEBENoah Kjar 6 Yd pass from Nate Dahle (David Dellenbach Kick)14–28
- Q2 14:50COLOMicah Welch 55 Yd Run (Elliot Arnold Kick)7–28
- Q1 4:52COLOErnest Campbell 48 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Elliot Arnold Kick)7–21
- Q1 7:07WEBERobert Young 13 Yd pass from Nate Dahle (David Dellenbach Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:54COLOJoseph Williams 63 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Elliot Arnold Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:25COLODeAndre Moore Jr. 66 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Elliot Arnold Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = WEBE ahead, below = COLO ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassNate Dahle 20/48, 244 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushOmar Shah 12 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecNoah Kjar 7 REC, 121 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJulian Lewis 17/23, 366 YDS, 4 TD
- RushMicah Welch 11 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJoseph Williams 4 REC, 123 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Weber State vs. Colorado?
Weber State 21, Colorado 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (COLO) was correct.
| WEBE | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 372 | Total yards | 578 |
| 245 | Passing yards | 398 |
| 127 | Rushing yards | 180 |
| 23 | First downs | 24 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 22/52 | Comp/Att | 26/35 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 11.4 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-55 | Penalties | 13-107 |
| 29:55 | Possession | 30:05 |
- Q4 7:42WEBENoah Kjar 12 Yd pass from Nate Dahle (David Dellenbach Kick)21–52
- Q4 11:35COLOKaneal Sweetwyne 9 Yd Run (Elliot Arnold Kick)14–52
- Q3 8:09COLOElliot Arnold 52 Yd Field Goal 14–45
- Q2 0:51COLOJulian Lewis 3 Yd Run (Elliot Arnold Kick)14–42
- Q2 7:38COLOJoseph Williams 32 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Elliot Arnold Kick)14–35
- Q2 12:11WEBENoah Kjar 6 Yd pass from Nate Dahle (David Dellenbach Kick)14–28
- Q2 14:50COLOMicah Welch 55 Yd Run (Elliot Arnold Kick)7–28
- Q1 4:52COLOErnest Campbell 48 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Elliot Arnold Kick)7–21
- Q1 7:07WEBERobert Young 13 Yd pass from Nate Dahle (David Dellenbach Kick)7–14
- Q1 11:54COLOJoseph Williams 63 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Elliot Arnold Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:25COLODeAndre Moore Jr. 66 Yd pass from Julian Lewis (Elliot Arnold Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects COLO -22.2 (90% to win) — 16.4 points clear of WEBE's market line of -38.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →