Army vs. Rice Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Army gets at Rice: 3rd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 126th at generating havoc. Rice projects no clear way in against Army. Army is also 4th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 107th.
How
ARMYattacks
RICE
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ARMY#3 of 138RICE#126 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
ARMY#4 of 138RICE#107 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
ARMY#50 of 138RICE#126 of 138
The two teams
Army
Army runs it: Jeff Monken's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 132nd at hitting chunk plays, and they are 128th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −10.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Army has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#3projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#12projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#132projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#128projected
- Defensefirst and second down#124projected
Rice
Rice is in year 2 under Scott Abell. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 132nd at staying on schedule through the air.
Rice has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#138projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#132projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#132projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1147, ARMY Elo 1530 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +13.5 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ARMY19th111thRICERICE122nd61stARMYThrough the air
ARMY131st97thRICERICE138th46thARMYOn the ground
ARMY1st87thRICERICE12th51stARMYStaying on the field
ARMY33rd109thRICERICE56th74thARMYTaking care of it
ARMY21st109thRICERICE104th129thARMY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArmy leads 5–4–1 · Army has won 4 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| ARMY | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.3 (#103) | CORE overall | -20.5 (#132) |
| +2 / +11 | offense / defense | -14 / +6 |
| 3.00 | points / drive | -0.70 |
| 3.50 | allowed / drive | 5.00 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 60% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Army vs. Rice?
Gridpex's model favors Army with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Army vs. Rice?
The model projects Army by 13.5.
What time is Army vs. Rice and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Rice Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →