Army vs. Tulsa Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Army gets at Tulsa: 9th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 101st at generating havoc. Where Tulsa gets at Army: 98th in the push up front, against a unit 131st at holding the line of scrimmage. Army is also 10th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 87th.
How
ARMYattacks
TLSA
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ARMY#9 of 138TLSA#101 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
ARMY#10 of 138TLSA#87 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
ARMY#42 of 138TLSA#81 of 138
HowTLSAattacksARMY
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
TLSA#98 of 138ARMY#131 of 138
The two teams
Army
Army runs it: Jeff Monken's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 131st at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 130th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −10.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Army has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#9projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#131projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#130projected
- Defensefirst and second down#130projected
Tulsa
Tulsa is in year 2 under Tre Lamb. The way in is 126th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 109th at throwing it.
Tulsa has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#126projected
- Offensethrowing it#109projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#106projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1268, ARMY Elo 1524 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +7.4 (33% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ARMY21st44thTLSATLSA59th66thARMYThrough the air
ARMY126th104thTLSATLSA69th57thARMYOn the ground
ARMY3rd82ndTLSATLSA90th55thARMYStaying on the field
ARMY35th54thTLSATLSA135th75thARMYTaking care of it
ARMY31st14thTLSATLSA31st118thARMY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ARMY | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.7 (#96) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#69) |
| -2 / +5 | offense / defense | -4 / -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Army vs. Tulsa?
Gridpex's model favors Army with a 67% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Army vs. Tulsa?
The model projects Army by 7.4.
What time is Army vs. Tulsa and what channel is it on?
Fri, Oct 23, 8:30 PM ET, at Chapman Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →