Florida Atlantic vs. Army Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Florida Atlantic gets at Army: 38th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 119th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Army gets at Florida Atlantic: 4th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 126th at stuffing runs at the line. Florida Atlantic is also 59th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 128th.
How
FAUattacks
ARMY
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
FAU#38 of 138ARMY#119 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
FAU#59 of 138ARMY#128 of 138 - 3
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
FAU#61 of 138ARMY#124 of 138
HowARMYattacksFAU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
ARMY#4 of 138FAU#126 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ARMY#3 of 138FAU#106 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
ARMY#50 of 138FAU#109 of 138
The two teams
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is in year 2 under Zach Kittley. The strengths are offensive, led by 3rd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at defending the run, and they are 128th on early downs defensively.
Florida Atlantic has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#3projected
- Offensethrowing it#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#134projected
- Defensefirst and second down#128projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#126projected
Army
Army runs it: Jeff Monken's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 132nd at hitting chunk plays, and they are 128th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −10.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Army has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#3projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#12projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#132projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#128projected
- Defensefirst and second down#124projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1530, FAU Elo 1226 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -10.3 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FAU121st61stARMYARMY19th135thFAUThrough the air
FAU14th46thARMYARMY131st109thFAUOn the ground
FAU133rd51stARMYARMY1st136thFAUStaying on the field
FAU22nd74thARMYARMY33rd90thFAUTaking care of it
FAU74th129thARMYARMY21st46thFAU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FAU | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.2 (#107) | CORE overall | -8.3 (#103) |
| +0 / +9 | offense / defense | +2 / +11 |
| 2.84 | points / drive | 3.00 |
| 4.27 | allowed / drive | 3.50 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida Atlantic vs. Army?
Gridpex's model favors Army with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida Atlantic vs. Army?
The model projects Army by 10.3.
What time is Florida Atlantic vs. Army and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET, at Michie Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →