vs BYU · Wk 3Win prob 5%Model +24.2Schedule & Results
WYOWyomingW35-13✓Wk 2vsSOUTSouthern UtahW58-24✓Wk 3vsBYUBYU+24.25%Wk 4@
UTSAUTSA+11.425%Wk 5vs
ORSTOregon State-4.361%Wk 7@
TXSTTexas State+13.320%Wk 8vs
SDSUSan Diego State+13.819%Wk 9@
USUUtah State+15.516%Wk 10vs
BOISBoise State+11.623%Wk 11@
WSUWashington State+12.222%Wk 12@
FRESFresno State+11.624%Team Leaders
Hauss HejnyPassing539 yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
Jayden BrownRushing228 yds · 2 TD · 13.4 avg
Jackson HarperReceiving9 rec · 140 yds · 2 TD
Oumar DiomandeTackles16 tackles · 0 TFL · 0 sacks
Latest on Colorado State
All news →Hauss Hejny was responsible for 30 of Colorado State's 35 points
Wyoming's edge rides on a quarterback nobody has seen
Roster · 114 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | K'saan Farrar | QB | SO | 6'3" | 215 | Newport News, VA |
| 3 | Darius Curry | QB | JR | 5'10" | 165 | Long Beach, CA |
| 8 | Hauss Hejny | QB | SO | 6'0" | 206 | Aledo, TX |
| 13 | Tommy Poholsky | QB | SR | 6'1" | 210 | Evergreen, CO |
| 16 | Darnell Kelly | QB | FR | — | — | Barnesville, GA |
| 19 | Carter Emanuel | QB | FR | — | — | Orlando, FL |
| 1 | Mel Brown | RB | SR | 5'9" | 180 | Stone Mountain, GA |
| 7 | Malichi Greaves | RB | SO | 5'9" | 190 | Queens, NY |
| 11 | Durell Robinson | RB | SR | 6'0" | 207 | Seat Pleasant, MD |
| 22 | Cedric Ross | RB | FR | — | — | Lubbock, TX |
| 23 | Damian Moore Jr. | RB | FR | — | — | Orlando, FL |
| 24 | Jayden Fox | RB | FR | 5'9" | 170 | Englewood, CO |
| 34 | Amare Gomez | RB | SO | 5'9" | 180 | San Diego, CA |
| 44 | Oliver Lundberg | RB | JR | 5'10" | 200 | Gothenburg |
| 0 | RJ Vick | WR | SR | 6'3" | 198 | Raleigh, NC |
| 4 | Lavon Brown | WR | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Chatsworth, CA |
| 6 | Jackson Harper | WR | SR | 6'2" | 200 | Simsbury, CT |
| 9 | Jordan Mosley | WR | SR | 6'0" | 195 | Mobile, AL |
| 10 | Tommy Maher | WR | JR | 5'10" | 170 | Bellflower, CA |
| 15 | Terrence Smith Jr. | WR | SO | 5'11" | 170 | Aiken, SC |
| 20 | Jaivyn Moore | WR | JR | — | — | Peoria, IL |
| 25 | Eli Rich | WR | FR | — | — | Boise, ID |
| 28 | Hudson Cocchiara | WR | FR | — | — | Alpharetta, GA |
| 29 | Brandon Brown Jr. | WR | FR | — | — | Killeen, TX |
| 81 | Troy Foster | WR | FR | — | — | Los Alamitos, CA |
| 82 | Daven Amos | WR | SO | — | — | Pittsburg, CA |
| 83 | Yasser Jackson | WR | FR | — | — | Oakland, CA |
| 84 | Stephon Daily | WR | JR | 6'3" | 180 | Phoenix, AZ |
| 86 | Isaiah Watson | WR | FR | — | — | Aurora, CO |
| 87 | Antoine Martin Jr. | WR | SO | 5'11" | 170 | Houston, TX |
| 5 | Juice Vereen | TE | SR | 6'4" | 220 | Havelock, NC |
| 17 | Brock Camp | TE | SO | 6'5" | 250 | Columbia, MO |
| 18 | Pearce Spurlin III | TE | JR | 6'7" | 230 | Santa Rosa Beach, FL |
| 26 | Ryan McConnell | TE | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Erie, CO |
| 30 | Dominic Toy | TE | JR | 6'6" | 225 | Chester, PA |
| 85 | Grant Houser | TE | SO | 6'6" | 230 | Wapakoneta, OH |
| 88 | Nader Chirchi | TE | SR | 6'7" | 265 | Alexandria, VA |
| 50 | Jayden Tuia | OL | JR | 6'5" | 298 | Pocatello, ID |
| 52 | Kentez Allen | OL | SO | 6'2" | 295 | Mcdonough, GA |
| 54 | Quinton Harris | OL | SR | 6'8" | 315 | Arlington, TX |
| 61 | Diego Rodriguez | OL | JR | 6'5" | 290 | Hillside, NJ |
| 62 | Packs Ahovelo | OL | FR | — | — | Waimanalo, HI |
| 63 | John Holthaus | OL | JR | 6'7" | 285 | Portola Valley, CA |
| 64 | Mason Turpin | OL | FR | — | — | Meridian, ID |
| 65 | Phillip Ocon | OL | JR | 6'3" | 300 | South Pasadena, CA |
| 68 | Jeremiah Costilla | OL | JR | — | — | Tracy, CA |
| 70 | Berlin Lillard | OL | JR | 6'4" | 365 | Oakland, CA |
| 71 | Zach Smith | OL | JR | 6'8" | 300 | Highlands Ranch, CO |
| 72 | Max Vivier | OL | FR | — | — | Navan, ON |
| 73 | Braden Hales | OL | JR | 6'5" | 305 | Olathe, KS |
| 74 | Payton Stewart | OL | JR | 6'6" | 308 | Kelso, WA |
| 75 | Sione Netane | OL | SO | 6'3" | 350 | San Mateo, CA |
| 76 | Toriyan Johnson | OL | SR | 6'8" | 330 | Dorchester, MA |
| 78 | Uluaki Tatafu | OL | FR | — | — | Waimanalo, HI |
| 79 | Luke Van Auken | OL | FR | — | — | Franklinville, NJ |
| 9 | Stephon Wright | DL | SR | 6'5" | 285 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 10 | Brandon Kelley | DL | SR | 6'6" | 235 | Pottstown, PA |
| 52 | Cleto Chol | DL | SR | 6'6" | 270 | Lynn, MA |
| 55 | Desman Manuel | DL | FR | — | — | Dallas, TX |
| 58 | Peyton Garrett | DL | JR | 6'2" | 230 | Parker, CO |
| 71 | Ismael El Bouomrani | DL | SO | — | — | Fort Myers, FL |
| 77 | Jack Moran | DL | JR | 6'6" | 255 | Arvada, CO |
| 90 | Keegan Shank | DL | JR | 6'4" | 255 | Scottsdale, AZ |
| 92 | Mukendi Wa-Kalonji | DL | SR | 6'4" | 250 | Aurora, CO |
| 93 | Robby Harrison | DL | SR | 6'4" | 320 | Greenwood, SC |
| 94 | Alton Tarber IV | DL | SR | 6'4" | 330 | Deerfield Beach, FL |
| 95 | Gabe Jones | DL | JR | 6'4" | 290 | Dallas, TX |
| 96 | Tyrone Fitten | DL | FR | — | — | Hogansville, GA |
| 97 | Amare Bell | DL | FR | — | — | Phoenix, AZ |
| 99 | TaVeon Robinson | DL | JR | — | — | Olathe, KS |
| 2 | Oumar Diomande | LB | SR | 6'1" | 230 | Bronx, NY |
| 8 | Antarron Turner | LB | SR | 6'1" | 244 | Ocala, FL |
| 11 | Khamani Potts | LB | SR | — | — | Rochester, MI |
| 16 | Ace Brown | LB | FR | — | — | Youngstown, OH |
| 19 | Nykobi Brown | LB | SO | 6'3" | 250 | Valdosta, GA |
| 23 | Jaseim Mitchell | LB | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Colorado Springs, CO |
| 27 | Jaylen King | LB | FR | — | — | Clayton, NC |
| 28 | Marc Pretto | LB | SR | 6'2" | 225 | Montclair, NJ |
| 31 | Mickey Williams | LB | FR | — | — | San Francisco, CA |
| 34 | Trey Dennison | LB | FR | — | — | Edmonds, WA |
| 35 | Jaden Hernandez | LB | FR | — | — | Carson, CA |
| 36 | Dakota Rich | LB | FR | — | — | Littleton, CO |
| 45 | Caleb Otlewski | LB | SR | 6'4" | 235 | Melissa, TX |
| 50 | Josh Ayers | LB | SR | 6'2" | 205 | Parker, CO |
| 54 | Cannon Valenzuela | LB | SO | 6'3" | 200 | Jacksboro, TX |
| 56 | Kenyon Agurs | LB | SR | 6'4" | 240 | Inglewood, CA |
| 0 | Caleb Presley | CB | JR | 6'0" | 177 | Seattle, WA |
| 5 | D'Angelo Hagans Jr. | CB | SO | 6'0" | 195 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 6 | Elijah Brown | CB | JR | 6'2" | 185 | Los Angeles, CA |
| 7 | Jordan Lessard | CB | SR | — | — | Montreal, PQ |
| 17 | CJ Blocker | CB | SR | 6'0" | 180 | Houston, TX |
| 20 | Jayden Cortell | CB | SR | 5'11" | 180 | San Diego, CA |
| 22 | Makih Johnson | CB | SO | 6'2" | 185 | Tarpon Springs, FL |
| 26 | Thomas Cook Jr. | CB | FR | — | — | Fort Worth, TX |
| 29 | Xavier Wimbush | CB | FR | — | — | Ashburn, VA |
| 30 | Kallen Martinez | CB | FR | — | — | Tampa, FL |
| 32 | Justin Lewis | CB | FR | — | — | Fontana, CA |
| 33 | Ty Staples | CB | FR | — | — | Columbus, OH |
| 1 | D'Mon Brinson | S | SR | 5'10" | 180 | Miami, FL |
| 3 | Dagan Myers | S | JR | 5'10" | 185 | Morrison, CO |
| 4 | Dylan Phelps | S | SR | 6'3" | 190 | Las Vegas, NV |
| 12 | Jace Bellah | S | SR | 5'11" | 190 | Pueblo, CO |
| 13 | Elijah Mc-Cantos | S | SR | 6'0" | 190 | Little Haiti, FL |
| 15 | Tre'Shawn Moore | S | JR | 6'1" | 190 | Baxley, GA |
| 18 | AJ Noland | S | JR | 6'1" | 185 | Tualatin, OR |
| 24 | Trey Vincent | S | SR | 6'3" | 185 | Grinnell, KS |
| 25 | Jermaine Santana-Diaz | S | FR | — | — | Missouri City, TX |
| 44 | Atticus Tillman | S | FR | — | — | Arvada, CO |
| 36 | Casey Carr | PK | SO | 6'1" | 190 | San Jose, CA |
| 40 | Kali Nguma | PK | JR | 5'10" | 186 | Mission, TX |
| 39 | Nathan Sutcliffe | P | JR | 6'6" | 245 | Buninyong, VIC |
| 99 | Cavan Craig | P | JR | 5'11" | 190 | Charleston, SC |
| 42 | Declan McKernan | LS | FR | — | — | Boulder, CO |
| 56 | Walker Himebauch | LS | SR | 6'1" | 225 | Monument, CO |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Colorado State is in year 1 under Jim Mora, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 133rd at closing out passing downs, and they are 132nd at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −39.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#133projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#131projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 9 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 9 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 2.72#110
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.05 / 3.20
- Power / stuff (off)
- 100.0% / 19.6%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 27.3%#5
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 17.4% / 9.9%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | -0.10#117 | 0.78#4 | 0.81#32 |
| Defense | 0.00#83 | 0.39#121 | 0.00#12 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.4085th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.0655th
- Offense success rate49%69th
- Defense success rate allowed38%47th
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs51%63rd
- Offense success — passing downs42%80th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs43%52nd
- Defense success allowed — passing downs27%53rd
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.593rd
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.255th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.282nd
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs2.796th
Trenches
- Offense line yards2.616th
- Defense line yards allowed3.214th
- Offense highlight yards3.999th
- Defense highlight yards allowed2.09th
- Offense power success0.9289th
- Defense power success allowed0.7543rd
- Offense stuff rate0.2415th
- Defense stuff rate0.1414th
Third down
- Third down conversion50%77th
- Third down distance faced5.983rd
- Third down conversion allowed29%79th
- Third down distance forced9.698th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0753rd
- Net success rate — second half0.0957th
Drives
- Points per drive3.582nd
- Points per drive allowed1.085th
- Average starting field position2954th
- Opponent starting field position2764th
- Available yards gained58%69th
- Available yards allowed35%85th
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed70%75th
- Points per scoring opportunity3.572nd
- Points allowed per opportunity1.488th
- Three-and-out rate40%16th
- Three-and-outs forced50%96th
Roster
- Returning usage31%39th
- Returning EPA79.640th
- Team talent composite64046th
- Recruiting class rank73.047th
- Recruiting class points18947th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.280 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
2-0 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 10 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 50.8%
- Expected, given the spots
- 40.6%
- Over expected
- +10.1
- Fourth down vs peers
- +5
- Fourth down vs the model
- -25
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Colorado State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Colorado State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 100% | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 3.1 | -1.1 |
| 2024 | 8-5 | 6-1 | 62% | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 42% | 4.6 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 3-9 | 3-5 | 25% | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 2021 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 6.1 | -3.1 |
| 2020 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 25% | 0.9 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 33% | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| 2018 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 25% | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 7.3 | -0.3 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
1-0 so far, projected to finish 5.0-6.1. Wins the Pac-12 in 3.6%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 1.
up 0.6 points since preseason — won 35-13 over Wyoming against an expected margin of +2, so +20.4 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 74% where the average Pac-12 team is 80%.
- The Pac-12 takes 0.25 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.8% of seasons, having won their league in 84% of those.
Colorado State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3vs BYU4.1
- wk10vs Boise State3.1
- wk4at UTSA2.0
- wk9at Utah State1.7
- wk12at Fresno State1.7
- wk8vs San Diego State1.6
Who to root for
Games Colorado State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk3Bowling Green over Iowa State0.4
- wk3Arkansas over Georgia0.3
- wk7Hawai'i over New Mexico0.3
- wk12Wyoming over New Mexico0.3
- wk9Northwestern over Oregon0.3
- wk6Iowa State over BYU0.3
Pac-12
0-0 in league play, projected 2.6-4.47 of 8 by title oddsThe Pac-12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 38% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk10Boise State at Colorado State11.0
- wk8San Diego State at Colorado State6.6
- wk9Colorado State at Utah State6.5
- wk12Colorado State at Fresno State6.3
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Pac-12 race →
If not the playoff, then
Colorado State is 2-0 and needs 4 more wins from 9 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent.
- Holiday Bowl10%
- Sun Bowl10%
- Alamo Bowl6.7%
- Las Vegas Bowl6.6%
- Independence Bowl1.8%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 8 have sent Colorado State a player since 2010 — 22 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Colorado State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.