San Diego State vs. Colorado State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where San Diego State gets at Colorado State: 9th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 126th at stuffing runs at the line. Colorado State projects no clear way in against San Diego State. San Diego State is also 14th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 129th.
How
SDSUattacks
CSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
SDSU#9 of 138CSU#126 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
SDSU#14 of 138CSU#129 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
SDSU#27 of 138CSU#122 of 138
The two teams
San Diego State
San Diego State runs it: Sean Lewis's offenses have been run-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 8th at closing out passing downs. The way in is 120th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San Diego State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#8projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#8projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#9projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#120projected
Colorado State
Colorado State is in year 1 under Jim Mora, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 131st at closing out passing downs, and they are 130th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −40.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#131projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#130projected
- Defensethrowing it#129projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1336, SDSU Elo 1518 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU +13.8 (19% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SDSU66th76thCSUCSU73rd60thSDSUThrough the air
SDSU118th29thCSUCSU61st121stSDSUOn the ground
SDSU30th92ndCSUCSU72nd51stSDSUStaying on the field
SDSU35th1stCSUCSU51st76thSDSUTaking care of it
SDSU95th14thCSUCSU1st30thSDSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan Diego State leads 23–15 · 37% have been one-possession games
| SDSU | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.6 (#38) | CORE overall | -5.4 (#89) |
| +2 / -6 | offense / defense | +0 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win San Diego State vs. Colorado State?
Gridpex's model favors San Diego State with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San Diego State vs. Colorado State?
The model projects San Diego State by 13.8.
What time is San Diego State vs. Colorado State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 24, 6:30 PM ET, at Canvas Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →