Colorado State vs. Utah State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Utah State gets at Colorado State: 31st at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 135th at closing out passing downs. Colorado State projects no clear way in against Utah State. Utah State is also 74th in the push up front, against a unit 135th.
How
USUattacks
CSU
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · 21% this season, 2 games
USU42%#31 of 138CSU31%#135 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 23% this season, 2 games
USU2.97#74 of 138CSU3.50#135 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · 24% this season, 2 games
USU-0.05#71 of 138CSU+0.19#125 of 138
The two teams
Colorado State
Colorado State is in year 1 under Jim Mora, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 22nd at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 135th at closing out passing downs, and they are 135th at holding the line of scrimmage.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −39.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.48#22 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve31%#135 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets3.50#135 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss16.1%#132 of 138
Utah State
Utah State throws it: Bronco Mendenhall's offenses have been pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 11th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 130th at generating havoc, and they are 122nd at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Utah State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.00#11 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.35#29 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve42%#31 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss9.9%#130 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line27.5%#122 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down36%#109 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1381, CSU Elo 1336 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -15.5 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
CSU13th41stUSUUSU126th114thCSUThrough the air
CSU24th66thUSUUSU77th57thCSUOn the ground
CSU28th52ndUSUUSU111th113thCSUStaying on the field
CSU34th64thUSUUSU20th31stCSUTaking care of it
CSU21st127thUSUUSU137th1stCSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado State leads 40–38–2 · 41% have been one-possession games
| CSU | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.4 (#94) | CORE overall | +1.1 (#64) |
| +0 / +6 | offense / defense | -3 / -4 |
| 3.50 | points / drive | 1.27 |
| 1.00 | allowed / drive | 1.46 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 45% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Colorado State vs. Utah State?
Gridpex's model favors Utah State with a 84% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Colorado State vs. Utah State?
The model projects Utah State by 15.5.
What time is Colorado State vs. Utah State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, at Maverik Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →