Colorado State vs. Texas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Colorado State gets at Texas State: 76th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 121st at keeping everything in front of them. Where Texas State gets at Colorado State: 11th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 133rd at closing out passing downs. Texas State is also 9th at throwing it, against a unit 129th.
How
CSUattacks
TXST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
CSU#76 of 138TXST#121 of 138
HowTXSTattacksCSU
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
TXST#11 of 138CSU#133 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
TXST#9 of 138CSU#129 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
TXST#6 of 138CSU#124 of 138
The two teams
Colorado State
Colorado State is in year 1 under Jim Mora, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 133rd at closing out passing downs, and they are 132nd at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −39.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#133projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#131projected
Texas State
Texas State is in year 4 under G.J. Kinne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at running it. The way in is 121st at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −18.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#6projected
- Offensethrowing it#9projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#11projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#121projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1438, CSU Elo 1336 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -13.3 (80% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
CSU13th120thTXSTTXST98th115thCSUThrough the air
CSU24th134thTXSTTXST102nd57thCSUOn the ground
CSU29th98thTXSTTXST29th111thCSUStaying on the field
CSU33rd119thTXSTTXST19th31stCSUTaking care of it
CSU21st109thTXSTTXST133rd1stCSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CSU | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.4 (#94) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#43) |
| +0 / +6 | offense / defense | +9 / +2 |
| 3.50 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 1.00 | allowed / drive | 4.15 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 10% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Colorado State vs. Texas State?
Gridpex's model favors Texas State with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Colorado State vs. Texas State?
The model projects Texas State by 13.3.
What time is Colorado State vs. Texas State and what channel is it on?
Thu, Oct 15, 8:00 PM ET, at Bobcat Stadium (TX).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →