Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Southern Miss gets at UL Monroe: 9th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 125th at keeping everything in front of them. Where UL Monroe gets at Southern Miss: 8th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 68th at keeping everything in front of them. Southern Miss is also 38th at throwing it, against a unit 114th.
How
USMattacks
ULM
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
USM#9 of 138ULM#125 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
USM#38 of 138ULM#114 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
USM#59 of 138ULM#118 of 138
HowULMattacksUSM
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ULM#8 of 138USM#68 of 138
The two teams
Southern Miss
Southern Miss is in year 1 under Blake Anderson, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 9th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Southern Miss has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#9projected
UL Monroe
UL Monroe runs it: Bryant Vincent's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 8th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 128th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 125th at keeping a clean pocket.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+7.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UL Monroe has played 2 FBS opponents, but with much of the country still on non-conference openers there is no national field to measure that against yet — so this stays the projection until there is.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#8projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#128projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#125projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#125projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 1079, USM Elo 1285 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +10.4 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USM106th138thULMULM132nd109thUSMThrough the air
USM96th69thULMULM136th62ndUSMOn the ground
USM55th112thULMULM135th133rdUSMStaying on the field
USM73rd112thULMULM133rd100thUSMTaking care of it
USM75th127thULMULM1st5thUSM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouthern Miss leads 7–3 · 20% have been one-possession games
| USM | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.5 (#127) | CORE overall | -25.1 (#137) |
| -9 / +8 | offense / defense | -13 / +12 |
| -0.18 | points / drive | 1.50 |
| 3.44 | allowed / drive | 4.40 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| +14 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe?
Gridpex's model favors Southern Miss with a 75% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe?
The model projects Southern Miss by 10.4.
What time is Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Malone Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →