Southern Miss vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsAUB
- Q3 0:09AUBO. Mabson II run for 2 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)8–43
- Q3 3:26AUBE. Hampton sacked by C. Sigler for -3 yds for a SAFETY8–36
- Q3 10:00AUBC. Neptune pass to B. Brown for 5 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)8–34
- Q2 0:03AUBA. McPherson 55 yd FG GOOD8–27
- Q2 0:24USME. Hampton pass to S. Robinson for 1 yd, for a TD (J. Himes pass to J. Beck Jr. GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)8–24
- Q2 6:40AUBB. Brown pass to D. Spencer for 8 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–24
- Q1 1:31AUBA. McPherson 47 yd FG GOOD0–17
- Q1 3:45AUBB. Brown pass to J. Echols for 22 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–14
- Q1 14:50AUBE. Hampton pass intercepted, A. Jordan Jr. return for 29 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AUB won this on the ground — that lane, not the scoreboard, was the story against USM. +0.46 vs -0.16 EPA/play
- USM kept reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives worked, the finishes did not. -0.2 pts per trip vs 3.8
- AUB started drives roughly 9 yards closer than USM — a scoreboard edge that never shows up as a stat line. own 29 vs own 20
Auburn won its opener 17-16 while scoring on 23.1% of its drives, and the widest unit edge in this matchup belongs to the visiting team.
Auburn is laying 29.8 and projects to win 32-28. The largest edge in the matchup belongs to the visitors: Southern Miss's passing game against Auburn's coverage grades +3.35 standard deviations, the widest unit separation on the board, and it points the wrong way for a home team giving four touchdowns. Auburn's path to that number runs through making the Southern Miss passing edge irrelevant for four quarters, and nothing in the opener suggests that is routine.
- PassEthan Hampton 18/27, 146 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushSteven Robinson 15 CAR, 51 YDS
- RecMario Sanders 3 REC, 58 YDS
- PassByrum Brown 17/28, 223 YDS, 2 TD
- RushOmar Mabson II 15 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah Koger 2 REC, 57 YDS
- Q1 14:50AUB +11%
Shotgun #5 E.Hampton pass intercepted by #22 A.Jordan Jr. at USM29 QB hurried by #35 D.Walker #22 A.Jordan Jr. return 29 yards to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 3:45AUB +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown pass complete short middle to #81 J.Echols caught at USM05, for 22 yards to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Auburn?
Southern Miss 8, Auburn 43.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AUB) was correct.
| USM | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 221 | Total yards | 610 |
| 171 | Passing yards | 267 |
| 50 | Rushing yards | 343 |
| 12 | First downs | 31 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 4-5 |
| 22/33 | Comp/Att | 20/33 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 6.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-85 | Penalties | 10-73 |
| 27:11 | Possession | 32:49 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:26 USM punt on 4th & 2 at USM 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
- AUBEnd Of Quarter8 plays · 46 yds · from AUB 45 · Q4 6:06+4.5 EPA
- USMDowns12 plays · 51 yds · from USM 4 · Q4 11:59+2.7 EPA
- AUBFumble8 plays · 67 yds · from AUB 29 · Q4 14:07+2.7 EPA
- USMPunt3 plays · 0 yds · from USM 35 · Q3 0:09−1.2 EPA
- AUBTouchdown10 plays · 64 yds · from AUB 20 · Q3 3:18+4.5 EPA
- USMSafety2 plays · -4 yds · from USM 4 · Q3 3:56−0.3 EPA
- AUBFumble13 plays · 68 yds · from AUB 28 · Q3 8:26+0.0 EPA
- USMPunt3 plays · 8 yds · from USM 35 · Q3 9:56−0.8 EPA
- AUBTouchdown12 plays · 65 yds · from AUB 35 · Q3 14:53+3.5 EPA+1% WP
- AUBField Goal4 plays · 33 yds · from AUB 35 · Q2 0:19+2.4 EPA+1% WP
- USMTouchdown14 plays · 74 yds · from USM 35 · Q2 6:40+2.6 EPA+2% WP
- AUBTouchdown8 plays · 85 yds · from AUB 15 · Q2 9:40+2.3 EPA+2% WP
- USMPunt3 plays · 3 yds · from USM 20 · Q2 11:44−0.9 EPA
- AUBPunt5 plays · 13 yds · from AUB 32 · Q2 13:57−1.3 EPA
- Q3 0:09AUBO. Mabson II run for 2 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)8–43
- Q3 3:26AUBE. Hampton sacked by C. Sigler for -3 yds for a SAFETY8–36
- Q3 10:00AUBC. Neptune pass to B. Brown for 5 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)8–34
- Q2 0:03AUBA. McPherson 55 yd FG GOOD8–27
- Q2 0:24USME. Hampton pass to S. Robinson for 1 yd, for a TD (J. Himes pass to J. Beck Jr. GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)8–24
- Q2 6:40AUBB. Brown pass to D. Spencer for 8 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–24
- Q1 1:31AUBA. McPherson 47 yd FG GOOD0–17
- Q1 3:45AUBB. Brown pass to J. Echols for 22 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–14
- Q1 14:50AUBE. Hampton pass intercepted, A. Jordan Jr. return for 29 yds, for a TD (A. McPherson KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1613, USM Elo 1350 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB -12.6 (78% to win) — 20.4 points clear of USM's market line of -33. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAuburn leads 18–5 · Auburn has won 4 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| USM | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.1 (#70) | CORE overall | +3.3 (#59) |
| +0 / +0 | offense / defense | -3 / -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Southern Miss's passing game is Auburn's biggest problem
Auburn won its opener 17-16 while scoring on 23.1% of its drives, and the widest unit edge in this matchup belongs to the visiting team.
Southern Miss wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Auburn, the more likely Auburn wins.
Three of five unit edges belong to the underdog
Southern Miss's passing edge is the loudest of five graded matchups, and it is not the only one pointing that way. Auburn's offense grades 2.79 standard deviations behind Southern Miss's defense at staying on schedule, the difference between second-and-four and second-and-nine, and 1.59 behind in overall efficiency. Short-yardage and power tilt to Southern Miss by 1.14 as well. Auburn is losing structural ground in four of five categories while priced to win by four scores.
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward Auburn are battles it should win; toward Southern Miss are ones Southern Miss wins.
Auburn's one graded advantage is big plays, +1.29 standard deviations, and that is a volatile way to build a 30-point lead. A Southern Miss defense grading ahead of Auburn in overall efficiency and by 2.79 on staying on schedule pushes Auburn toward possession-by-possession scoring, which is the exact category the grades say Auburn handles worst. Auburn's explosives are the mechanism for a blowout, and 29.8 requires them all afternoon rather than twice.
Seventeen points against Baylor is the most current evidence there is
Auburn survived Baylor 17-16 while scoring on 23.1% of 13 drives and averaging 30.3 yards a possession. That opener landed on the same soft spot the unit grades already flag, which is why it belongs inside the read on Auburn rather than beside it. The preseason baseline still carries the 32-28 projection, and that baseline already had Auburn's offense 1.59 standard deviations behind the Southern Miss defense in overall efficiency.
Auburn's three-and-out rate against Baylor was 30.8%, nearly a third of its series ending before a fourth snap. Beating 29.8 asks Auburn to finish drive after drive against a Southern Miss front ranked 33rd of 185 against the run, and 23.1% of 13 drives is the opposite of that. Southern Miss gave up 3.0 points in its own opener, against a soft opponent, but that is not a defense currently leaking yards.
The 49-3 counts, with the obvious discount applied
Southern Miss scored on 58.3% of 12 drives against Alcorn State and moved 48.1 yards per possession, and the opponent deserves a heavy discount. The shape survives it: 33.3% of Southern Miss's series still ended in a three-and-out, so this was an offense that finished when it stayed on the field rather than one that was never stopped. Against Auburn, that finishing trait matters more than the 49 points do.
Southern Miss went 7-6 last season at 28.8 points a game; Auburn went 5-7 at 26.8, and returning production grades toward Southern Miss. Adjusted for schedule and situation Auburn is genuinely ahead, #25 against #74, about 7 points per 100 plays. That gap is real, and it still produces a 32-28 projection rather than a margin anywhere near 29.8.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Auburn are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
Neither running back has an easy front to run at
Jeremiah Cobb projects for 42 to 117 rushing yards with a 34% chance of a touchdown, against a Southern Miss run defense ranked 33rd of 185 by what it surrenders. Cobb's band is that wide because his volume is projectable and his per-carry work is not. The bottom of it is the Auburn afternoon where the 2.79-standard-deviation deficit on staying on schedule shows up and Cobb is taking handoffs on second-and-nine.
Robert Briggs draws the mirror image, 14 to 38 rushing yards against an Auburn run defense ranked 36th of 185. Southern Miss's route to 28 projected points was never Briggs on the ground, which is why the +3.35 passing edge carries the visitors' entire case. Both fronts can take the run away, and only Southern Miss grades with a clear answer for what comes after that.
Points allowed per drive across all FBS defenses (lower is better). Southern Miss's defense is below average, better than only 20% of FBS defenses.
The last time these two played, Auburn won 24-13
That was 2018 on this field, and Auburn won 24-13 without ever pulling clear. Both rosters have turned over since, so it is not a forecast, but it is direct evidence about Auburn and Southern Miss rather than an inference drawn from what each did to an overmatched opponent last Saturday. A 24-13 home win sits far nearer a 32-28 projection than a 29.8 spread.
Auburn owns the worse of the two most recent full seasons, 5-7 against Southern Miss's 7-6, and Southern Miss returns more of what produced its year. Auburn's edge on Saturday is roster talent and home field rather than recent form, and a 62% win probability is the honest size of it. Southern Miss at 38% is not a team being asked to do something unusual.
The honest Case for Auburn, and the one for the visitors
Auburn at #25 against Southern Miss at #74 is a real gap, about 7 points per 100 plays, and Auburn adds home field plus the roster-talent advantage that tends to surface late. The +1.29 big-play grade is how Auburn converts that into a rout: two early explosives force Southern Miss to chase, and a chasing Southern Miss offense throws into the down-and-distance where Auburn's coverage finally gets help.
Southern Miss's path is unglamorous and available: stay ahead of the chains, cut into the 33.3% three-and-out rate from the Alcorn State game, and make Auburn drive the length of the field against a front ranked 33rd of 185. Clock control and an even turnover day are a shorter list than the blowout stack Auburn needs, and Auburn covering 29.8 turns up in only 8% of projected outcomes. Southern Miss does not have to win to beat this number.
What has to happen
Auburn needs an offense unlike the one that beat Baylor: better than 23.1% of drives ending in points, explosives early enough to change how Southern Miss defends, and Cobb pushing toward the top of his 42-to-117 range rather than the bottom. Southern Miss needs the +3.35 passing edge to be as real on grass as on paper. A one-score finish projects at about 36%, and Auburn at 62% is favored to win a game it is not favored to bury.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →