Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Northern Illinois gets at Georgia State: 92nd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 130th at generating havoc. Where Georgia State gets at Northern Illinois: 78th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 129th at closing out passing downs. Northern Illinois is also 96th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 129th.
How
NIUattacks
GAST
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
NIU#92 of 138GAST#130 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NIU#96 of 138GAST#129 of 138
HowGASTattacksNIU
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
GAST#78 of 138NIU#129 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
GAST#90 of 138NIU#125 of 138
The two teams
Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is in year 1 under Rob Harley. The way in is 138th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 137th at surviving second and twelve.
Northern Illinois has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#138projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#137projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#135projected
Georgia State
Georgia State is in year 2 under Dell McGee. The way in is 131st at defending the pass, and they are 130th at closing out passing downs.
Georgia State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#130projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#130projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1287, NIU Elo 1266 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST -8.2 (71% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NIU138th64thGASTGAST21st87thNIUThrough the air
NIU123rd61stGASTGAST44th58thNIUOn the ground
NIU136th26thGASTGAST13th121stNIUStaying on the field
NIU120th26thGASTGAST26th134thNIUTaking care of it
NIU104th108thGASTGAST48th46thNIU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NIU | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -24.5 (#136) | CORE overall | -1.5 (#77) |
| -15 / +10 | offense / defense | +2 / +3 |
| -0.50 | points / drive | 3.00 |
| 2.62 | allowed / drive | 1.70 |
| 71% | three-and-outs | 20% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State?
Gridpex's model favors Georgia State with a 71% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State?
The model projects Georgia State by 8.2.
What time is Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Center Parc Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →