Georgia State vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Arkansas State gets at Georgia State: 89th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 130th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Georgia State projects no clear way in against Arkansas State.
How
ARSTattacks
GAST
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
ARST#89 of 138GAST#130 of 138
The two teams
Georgia State
Georgia State is in year 2 under Dell McGee. The way in is 131st at defending the pass, and they are 130th at closing out passing downs.
Georgia State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#130projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#130projected
Arkansas State
Arkansas State is in year 6 under Butch Jones, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 129th at running it, and they are 121st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#129projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#121projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#120projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1353, GAST Elo 1287 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST -6.8 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
GAST21st121stARSTARST31st64thGASTThrough the air
GAST44th53rdARSTARST67th61stGASTOn the ground
GAST13th124thARSTARST57th25thGASTStaying on the field
GAST26th125thARSTARST16th26thGASTTaking care of it
GAST47th5thARSTARST124th109thGAST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArkansas State leads 7–2 · 44% have been one-possession games
| GAST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 (#77) | CORE overall | -14.7 (#119) |
| +2 / +3 | offense / defense | -5 / +10 |
| 3.00 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 1.70 | allowed / drive | 3.82 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 0% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Georgia State vs. Arkansas State?
Gridpex's model favors Arkansas State with a 67% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Georgia State vs. Arkansas State?
The model projects Arkansas State by 6.8.
What time is Georgia State vs. Arkansas State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 24, 7:00 PM ET, at Centennial Bank Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →