Georgia State vs. Marshall Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Georgia State gets at Marshall: 41st at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 135th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Marshall gets at Georgia State: 14th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 130th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Marshall is also 23rd at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 130th.
How
GASTattacks
MRSH
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
GAST#41 of 138MRSH#135 of 138
HowMRSHattacksGAST
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
MRSH#14 of 138GAST#130 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
MRSH#23 of 138GAST#130 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
MRSH#32 of 138GAST#130 of 138
The two teams
Georgia State
Georgia State is in year 2 under Dell McGee. The way in is 131st at defending the pass, and they are 130th at closing out passing downs.
Georgia State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#130projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#130projected
Marshall
Marshall is in year 2 under Tony Gibson. The strengths are offensive, led by 14th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 135th at keeping everything in front of them.
Marshall has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#14projected
- Offensefirst and second down#20projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#135projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1388, GAST Elo 1287 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -20.9 (91% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
GAST21st112thMRSHMRSH134th64thGASTThrough the air
GAST44th128thMRSHMRSH126th61stGASTOn the ground
GAST13th89thMRSHMRSH132nd25thGASTStaying on the field
GAST26th87thMRSHMRSH132nd26thGASTTaking care of it
GAST47th109thMRSHMRSH74th109thGAST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| GAST | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 (#77) | CORE overall | -9.8 (#109) |
| +2 / +3 | offense / defense | -2 / +8 |
| 3.00 | points / drive | 0.61 |
| 1.70 | allowed / drive | 2.96 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 48% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Georgia State vs. Marshall?
Gridpex's model favors Marshall with a 91% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Georgia State vs. Marshall?
The model projects Marshall by 20.9.
What time is Georgia State vs. Marshall and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Joan C. Edwards Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →