@ TCU · Wk 3Win prob 12%Model +17.7Schedule & Results
MEMMemphisL24-42✓Wk 2vsWEGEWest GeorgiaW52-7✓Wk 3@TCUTCU+17.712%Wk 4vs
KENNKennesaw State+1.247%Wk 5@
ULLouisiana+9.728%Wk 6vs
USASouth Alabama-1.153%Wk 7@
USMSouthern Miss+14.617%Wk 8vs
GASTGeorgia State-6.867%Wk 10vs
ULMUL Monroe-7.368%Wk 11@
CCUCoastal Carolina+0.549%Wk 12@
LTLouisiana Tech+12.222%Wk 13vs
TROYTroy-0.351%Team Leaders
Trey OwensPassing460 yds · 3 TD · 4 INT
Kenyon ClayRushing99 yds · 2 TD · 4.0 avg
Chauncy CobbReceiving10 rec · 129 yds · 1 TD
Robert StevensTackles15 tackles · 2.5 TFL · 1 sacks
Latest on Arkansas State
All news →Marcus Stokes produced seven of Memphis's twelve explosive plays
Thirty-seven out: Arkansas State enters 2026 unrecognizable
Roster · 116 players
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | Wt | Hometown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ethan Crawford | QB | SR | 6'0" | 201 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 7 | Drew Dickey | QB | SR | 6'1" | 211 | Austin, TX |
| 9 | Trey Owens | QB | JR | 6'5" | 220 | Houston, TX |
| 12 | Jeremy St-Hilaire | QB | JR | 6'4" | 220 | Montreal, PQ |
| 20 | Mason Schubert | QB | SO | 6'3" | 188 | Stillwater, OK |
| 4 | Devin Spencer | RB | JR | 5'10" | 183 | Riverview, FL |
| 5 | Kenyon Clay | RB | SR | 6'1" | 223 | Union, MS |
| 8 | Corey Reddick | RB | SR | 5'10" | 175 | West Palm Beach, FL |
| 20 | Timothy Carter | RB | JR | 6'0" | 215 | Miami Gardens, FL |
| 22 | Ezell Jolly | RB | SR | 6'0" | 194 | Houston, TX |
| 23 | Solomon Baggett | RB | FR | 5'10" | 196 | Ocean Springs, MS |
| 24 | Nasir Allen | RB | SO | 5'11" | 174 | Ocala, FL |
| 27 | James Lee | RB | SR | 5'10" | 190 | Kenner, LA |
| 28 | Chavel Williams | RB | FR | 5'9" | 180 | Hattiesburg, MS |
| 30 | Damon Sisa | RB | JR | 5'8" | 160 | Germantown, TN |
| 0 | Nana Burris | WR | SR | 5'11" | 195 | Union, SC |
| 2 | Chauncy Cobb | WR | SR | 5'6" | 161 | Clewiston, FL |
| 3 | Hunter Summers | WR | SR | 6'3" | 165 | Prosper, TX |
| 10 | Jaylen Bonelli | WR | SR | 5'11" | 175 | Miami, FL |
| 13 | Boski Barrett | WR | JR | 5'11" | 178 | Knoxville, TN |
| 14 | Andre Feast | WR | SO | 5'10" | 186 | Missouri City, TX |
| 15 | Andrew Jones | WR | SO | 6'1" | 160 | Jonesboro, AR |
| 18 | Romel Stevens | WR | SO | 6'4" | 210 | Willis, TX |
| 21 | Deshaun Fedd | WR | FR | 6'1" | 175 | Cordele, GA |
| 80 | Kena Rego | WR | FR | 6'0" | 171 | Hoover, AL |
| 81 | Dallas Boozer | WR | FR | 6'2" | 175 | Prosper, TX |
| 84 | Reed Linder | WR | SR | 5'10" | 177 | Memphis, TN |
| 85 | Brandon Goliday | WR | FR | 6'0" | 183 | Antioch, TN |
| 11 | Tyler Little | TE | SR | 6'4" | 245 | Galena, KS |
| 16 | Joshua Burrell | TE | SR | 6'2" | 233 | Blythewood, SC |
| 17 | Jabari Bush | TE | JR | 6'4" | 230 | Katy, TX |
| 19 | Jaden Hamm | TE | SR | 6'6" | 252 | Eudora, KS |
| 41 | Coleman Parmer | TE | SO | 6'3" | 209 | Baxley, GA |
| 82 | Ezra Burgess | TE | JR | 6'4" | 243 | Rabun Gap, GA |
| 88 | Dawson Mcfadin | TE | FR | 6'4" | 227 | Conway, AR |
| 89 | Andrew Staten | TE | SO | 6'4" | 230 | Jacksonville, FL |
| 50 | Wil Saxton | OL | SR | 6'3" | 314 | Benton, MS |
| 51 | Cade Channell | OL | SO | 6'5" | 294 | Dora, AL |
| 52 | Mason Myers | OL | SR | 6'4" | 289 | Moody, AL |
| 53 | Talan Chandler | OL | JR | 6'2" | 299 | Nevada, MO |
| 55 | Aleric Watson | OL | SR | 6'4" | 333 | Murfreesboro, TN |
| 57 | Dan'tay Ward Jr. | OL | SO | 6'6" | 309 | Waco, TX |
| 58 | Cameron Ambrose | OL | SR | 6'4" | 275 | Pinson, AL |
| 63 | Aiden Kehm | OL | JR | 6'5" | 324 | Lake Oswego, OR |
| 64 | Noah Hacker | OL | SO | 6'7" | 294 | Nashville, TN |
| 65 | Cape Johnson | OL | JR | 6'4" | 303 | Wichita Falls, TX |
| 68 | Tristian Smith | OL | SR | 6'3" | 319 | Crossett, AR |
| 69 | Cooper Sherrod | OL | FR | 6'3" | 305 | Collierville, TN |
| 70 | Manasse Itete | OL | JR | 6'5" | 308 | Kinshasa |
| 71 | Tanner Welch | OL | SR | 6'8" | 326 | Flowood, MS |
| 72 | Sterling Wiggins | OL | SR | 6'6" | 317 | Woodbridge, VA |
| 74 | Landry Cannon | OL | SR | 6'4" | 310 | Destrehan, LA |
| 75 | JB Hoehn | OL | FR | 6'5" | 317 | Memphis, TN |
| 76 | Trason Hunt | OL | JR | 6'5" | 309 | Bentonville, AR |
| 77 | Gabe Fortson | OL | SR | 6'3" | 317 | Kennesaw, GA |
| 78 | Josh Austin | OL | FR | 6'4" | 336 | Pflugerville, TX |
| 79 | Baker North | OL | JR | 6'3" | 329 | Mission, KS |
| 10 | Tony Carter | DE | SO | 6'2" | 259 | Nashville, TN |
| 11 | Sultan Badmus | DE | JR | 6'1" | 275 | Bowie, MD |
| 14 | Donquarius Parker | DE | SR | 6'1" | 244 | Durham, NC |
| 20 | TJ Grant | DE | JR | 6'3" | 238 | Tuscaloosa, AL |
| 27 | AJ Thomas | DE | SR | 6'2" | 242 | Zachary, LA |
| 30 | Gavin Taylor | DE | SR | 6'2" | 247 | Yonkers, NY |
| 34 | Mckinley Mcshan | DE | FR | 6'3" | 241 | Loganville, GA |
| 42 | Shaun Williams | DE | SO | 6'3" | 266 | Columbus, MS |
| 45 | Nicolas Kalume | DE | SR | 6'3" | 244 | Waterford |
| 90 | Lincoln Stueve | DE | SO | 6'3" | 243 | Stilwell, KS |
| 96 | Ronnie Blossom | DE | SO | 6'3" | 225 | Vicksburg, MS |
| 44 | Sam Hultz | DT | SR | 6'3" | 281 | Collierville, TN |
| 47 | Trey Bridges | DT | FR | 6'2" | 263 | Petal, MS |
| 54 | Ryan Reese | DT | SO | 6'2" | 272 | Birmingham, AL |
| 91 | Tyeland Coleman | DT | SR | 6'4" | 319 | Terry, MS |
| 92 | Elias Sherman | DT | SR | 6'1" | 291 | Tulsa, OK |
| 93 | Trent Mapp | DT | JR | 6'2" | 284 | Lawrenceville, GA |
| 94 | Jakohri Johnson | DT | FR | 6'2" | 294 | Duncanville, TX |
| 97 | Tavon Bell | DT | FR | 6'3" | 275 | Winnsboro, LA |
| 98 | Shakai Woods | DT | SR | 6'0" | 305 | Douglasville, GA |
| 99 | TJ Spann | DT | JR | 6'3" | 307 | Clinton, MS |
| 9 | Kam Moore | LB | SR | 6'1" | 223 | Sanford, FL |
| 22 | Nigel Nelson | LB | SO | 5'11" | 216 | Pensacola, FL |
| 23 | Robert Stevens | LB | SR | 6'1" | 216 | Washington, DC |
| 24 | Joshua Ofor | LB | JR | 6'1" | 224 | Jonesboro, GA |
| 25 | Keoni Denny | LB | SR | 6'0" | 230 | Riverview, FL |
| 28 | Daniel Demery | LB | SR | 5'11" | 225 | Flower Mound, TX |
| 35 | Rasheem Turner | LB | FR | 5'10" | 219 | Sanford, FL |
| 37 | Ashton Moore | LB | FR | 6'0" | 193 | Brandon, MS |
| 38 | Noah Hamlin | LB | FR | 6'1" | 201 | Milton, FL |
| 0 | Dontrae Henderson | CB | JR | 5'11" | 184 | Charlotte, NC |
| 1 | Braden Jackson | CB | JR | 6'0" | 177 | Gulf Shores, AL |
| 2 | Jaylen Heyward | CB | JR | 6'0" | 189 | Rockledge, FL |
| 3 | Noah Flores | CB | SR | 5'9" | 181 | Sandy, UT |
| 7 | Courtney Patterson | CB | SO | 5'11" | 183 | Ocala, FL |
| 13 | Kyle Williams | CB | JR | 6'0" | 189 | Slidell, LA |
| 17 | Marquis Williams | CB | SO | 6'0" | 188 | Madison, MS |
| 29 | Luke Wisham | CB | JR | 6'2" | 184 | Zachary, LA |
| 33 | KeAndre Ford | CB | FR | 5'9" | 187 | Nashville, TN |
| 36 | Rayquan Williams | CB | SR | 6'2" | 165 | Germantown, TN |
| 4 | Makai Shahid | S | SR | 6'0" | 197 | Gahanna, OH |
| 5 | Five Hamilton | S | SR | 5'10" | 178 | Stockbridge, GA |
| 6 | AG McGhee | S | SR | 5'10" | 187 | Chipley, FL |
| 8 | Brandon Barnes | S | JR | 6'1" | 189 | Dallas, TX |
| 12 | Bryson Ross | S | JR | 6'3" | 190 | Sammamish, WA |
| 15 | Brandon Greil | S | SR | 5'11" | 182 | Little Rock, AR |
| 16 | Joe Drew | S | SO | 6'3" | 215 | Blackshear, GA |
| 18 | Malekhi Weedon | S | SO | 6'1" | 201 | Suwanee, GA |
| 19 | James Reed III | S | SR | 5'10" | 187 | Nashville, TN |
| 21 | Malik McConico | S | SR | 6'2" | 187 | Ocala, FL |
| 26 | Rukevwe Eruwetaghware | S | FR | 6'0" | 192 | Wylie, TX |
| 32 | Paul Risper | S | FR | 6'1" | 173 | Macon, GA |
| 25 | Clayton Amaya | PK | JR | 5'10" | 199 | Spring Branch, TX |
| 34 | Clune Van Andel | PK | SR | 6'0" | 210 | Grand Rapids, MI |
| 40 | Wells Stanley | P | FR | 6'0" | 205 | Franklin, TN |
| 90 | Daniel Vuckovic | P | SR | 6'1" | 214 | Kildeer, IL |
| 42 | Kyle Nill | LS | SO | 6'1" | 205 | McKinney, TX |
| 87 | Sam Boozer | LS | FR | 6'3" | 215 | Little Rock, AR |
| 88 | Riley Smith | LS | JR | 6'1" | 205 | Odessa, FL |
Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank
Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.
Scouting Report · 2026 projection
Arkansas State is in year 6 under Butch Jones, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 129th at running it, and they are 121st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#129projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#121projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#120projected
Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
2026 Season Projection
model win prob · 10 to playHow the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left
Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.
Player Value
EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).
Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.
Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.
The Five Factors
ranked vs. FBS · bar = betterOpponent-adjusted efficiency
EPA/play vs. schedulePass vs. rush (PPA)
Trenches & disruption
- Line yards (off)
- 3.18#56
- 2nd-level / open-field
- 1.04 / 0.65
- Power / stuff (off)
- 75.0% / 15.7%
- Havoc — total (def)
- 13.9%#107
- Havoc — front 7 / DB
- 7.4% / 6.6%
Standard vs. passing downs
ProPPA on each down type (off vs. def).
Opponent-adjusted by down
Pro| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 0.18#43 | 0.03#105 | 0.49#76 |
| Defense | 0.28#135 | -0.14#21 | 0.97#134 |
Elo Trajectory
Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams
Plot these →Efficiency
- Offense EPA/play0.2966th
- Defense EPA/play allowed0.2312th
- Offense success rate56%94th
- Defense success rate allowed44%21st
Downs
- Offense success — standard downs61%95th
- Offense success — passing downs40%77th
- Defense success allowed — standard downs47%30th
- Defense success allowed — passing downs37%15th
Explosiveness
- Offense explosiveness1.231st
- Defense explosiveness allowed1.325th
- Offense explosiveness — standard downs1.164th
- Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.513th
Trenches
- Offense line yards3.685th
- Defense line yards allowed3.39th
- Offense highlight yards1.462nd
- Defense highlight yards allowed2.64th
- Offense power success0.7961st
- Defense power success allowed0.8029th
- Offense stuff rate0.1282nd
- Defense stuff rate0.113rd
Third down
- Third down conversion56%88th
- Third down distance faced6.274th
- Third down conversion allowed57%4th
- Third down distance forced6.728th
Halves
- Net success rate — first half0.0648th
- Net success rate — second half0.2086th
Drives
- Points per drive2.254th
- Points per drive allowed3.813th
- Average starting field position3275th
- Opponent starting field position2196th
- Available yards gained55%64th
- Available yards allowed59%29th
- Scoring opportunities per drive100%99th
- Scoring opportunities allowed82%46th
- Points per scoring opportunity2.232nd
- Points allowed per opportunity4.710th
- Three-and-out rate0%99th
- Three-and-outs forced36%82nd
Roster
- Returning usage39%44th
- Returning EPA73.937th
- Team talent composite60634th
- Recruiting class rank85.039th
- Recruiting class points18439th
Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.
Intelligence Report
Offensive DNA
Pass efficiency edge: 0.043 EPA/play
Defensive Identity
Disruption comes evenly from front and secondary.
Season Signature
1-1 record through 2 games.
Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th
Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.
CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed
Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.
What a possession is worth · 11 drives
Play-calling identity
Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.
- Pass rate
- 55.9%
- Expected, given the spots
- 52.7%
- Over expected
- +3.2
- Fourth down vs peers
- -4
- Fourth down vs the model
- -100
National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play
Each dot = one FBS team. Arkansas State is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.
Similar Programs
Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Arkansas State in 2026
Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.
Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team
Program History
recent seasons| Year | Overall | Conf | Win % | xW | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 50% | 1.0 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 7-6 | 5-3 | 54% | 5.2 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 4.6 | +3.4 |
| 2023 | 6-7 | 4-4 | 46% | 5.6 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 3-9 | 1-7 | 25% | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 2021 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 17% | 2.9 | -0.9 |
| 2020 | 4-7 | 2-6 | 36% | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 2019 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 6.7 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 8-5 | 5-3 | 62% | 8.7 | -0.7 |
| 2017 | 7-5 | 6-2 | 58% | 9.4 | -2.4 |
xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).
0-1 so far, projected to finish 6.2-6.0. Wins the Sun Belt in 4.2%.
If they finish with…
Their chance of making it at each final loss count.
Win out and it is 26%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.
down 0.3 points since preseason — lost 24-42 to Memphis against an expected margin of −14, so −3.7 against the number.
- At 1 loss they are 26% where the average Sun Belt team is 36%.
- The Sun Belt takes 0.20 bids in an average season.
- One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 0.1% of seasons, having won their league in 100% of those.
Arkansas State’s own turning points
Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.
- wk3at TCU0.9
- wk12at Louisiana Tech0.3
- wk5at Louisiana0.3
- wk11at Coastal Carolina0.2
- wk13vs Troy0.2
- wk6vs South Alabama0.2
Who to root for
Games Arkansas State is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.
- wk11Oregon State over Boise State0.1
- wk6Maryland over Ohio State0.1
- wk4Wake Forest over Louisville0.1
- wk11Central Michigan over Sacramento State0.1
- wk7Ohio over Sacramento State0.1
- wk5Texas A&M over Arkansas0.1
Sun Belt
West division · 0-0 in league play, projected 4.4-3.69 of 14 by title oddsThe Sun Belt keeps divisions (East and West) and sends the winner of each — so Arkansas State can finish with the league’s second-best record and still stay home. The last berth is level on percentage in 46% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.
- wk5Arkansas State at Louisiana9.5
- wk12Arkansas State at Louisiana Tech9.2
- wk13Troy at Arkansas State6.6
- wk6South Alabama at Arkansas State5.8
Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Sun Belt race →
If not the playoff, then
Arkansas State is 1-1 and needs 5 more wins from 10 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.6% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.
- Salute to Veterans Bowl9.3%
- New Orleans Bowl9.2%
- 68 Ventures Bowl8.8%
- Myrtle Beach Bowl7.9%
- Boca Raton Bowl6.4%
- Cure Bowl6.2%
Recruiting Pipelines
since 2010Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 9 have sent Arkansas State a player since 2010 — 16 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Arkansas State's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.