Troy vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Troy gets at Arkansas State: 27th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 73rd at keeping everything in front of them. Arkansas State projects no clear way in against Troy.
How
TROYattacks
ARST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
TROY#27 of 138ARST#73 of 138
The two teams
Troy
Troy is in year 3 under Gerad Parker. The strengths are offensive, led by 27th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 127th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 123rd at keeping a clean pocket.
Troy has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#27projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#127projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#123projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#121projected
Arkansas State
Arkansas State is in year 6 under Butch Jones, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 129th at running it, and they are 121st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#129projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#121projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#120projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1353, TROY Elo 1420 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST -0.3 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TROY80th120thARSTARST31st52ndTROYThrough the air
TROY104th53rdARSTARST67th89thTROYOn the ground
TROY40th125thARSTARST56th15thTROYStaying on the field
TROY110th125thARSTARST15th66thTROYTaking care of it
TROY1st5thARSTARST124th76thTROY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArkansas State leads 11–9 · Arkansas State has won 2 straight · 55% have been one-possession games
| TROY | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.6 (#101) | CORE overall | -14.7 (#119) |
| -7 / +1 | offense / defense | -5 / +10 |
| 2.18 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 3.82 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 0% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Troy vs. Arkansas State?
Gridpex's model favors Arkansas State with a 51% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Troy vs. Arkansas State?
The model projects Arkansas State by 0.3.
What time is Troy vs. Arkansas State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 3:00 PM ET, at Centennial Bank Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →